Market Analytics and Considerations
Key notes
After three main U.S. indexes gained strength on Wednesday, recording their widest one-day percentage gain the said month as positive corporate earnings from Nike and FedEx, as well as strong consumer confidence statistics, managed to calm economic downturn fears, March S&P 500 futures (ESH23) are trending down -0.10% this morning. Improvements in the Oil & Gas, Industrials, and Technology sectors were principally responsible for the acceleration of 3 key U.S. stock indices.
According to statistics released on Wednesday, the job market stayed strong and inflation declined in December, allaying concerns about just a potential recession. However, because of increased mortgage rates, existing house sales in the United States fell 7.7% monthly to a 2-1/2-year trough in November.
In a few hours, the U.S. GDP report will be the center of attention. In comparison to the 2nd quarter’s score of -0.6% q/q, economists predict that the 3rd quarter’s U.S. GDP will be +2.9% q/q.
Traders will also probably pay attention to the US GDP Price Index, that was +9.1% q/q in the 2nd period. According to economists, the new value will be +4.3% q/q.
Figures on U.S. initial claims for unemployment will also be released today. Compared to the value of 211K last week, forecasts show that this number would be 222K.
United States 10-Year rates are at 3.640% in the bond markets, off -1.21%.
The latest GDP numbers from the U.K. had market participants analyzing the Euro Stoxx 50 futures, which are lower -0.23% this morning. The 3rd quarter’s gross domestic product for Britain came in at -0.3% q/q and +1.9% y/y, falling short of forecasts of -0.2% q/q and +2.4% y/y as the nation’s economy begins to slide into the recession that the Bank of England hinted at last month. In order to lower multi-decade high inflation, the BoE raised interest rates last week. Furthermore, the central bank issued a caution in November that tightening monetary policy would send the British economy into its longest slump in a century.
Data on the U.K. Current Account was also made public today.
U.K. current account was reported at -19.4 billion in the third quarter, beating forecasts of -20.8 billion.
The Asian stock markets ended mixed today. Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) finished up +0.46% while China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed down -0.46%.
China’s Shanghai Composite today ended weaker as a surge in Covid infections and uncertainties over a Chinese economic comeback remained to dampen mood. Traders are simultaneously confronted with an increasing number of indications that Beijing intends to completely relax its stringent zero-COVID strategy by 2023.
The Japanese government increased its growth projection for the upcoming fiscal year in anticipation of increasing company expenses and large salary rises, and the Nikkei 225 Stock Index ended the day increased. Increases in the sectors of retail, transportation, and communication contributed to the index’s rising trend. The implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options is factored into the Nikkei Volatility, which decreased 3.08% at 20.74.
