Oct 6, 2022
VOT Research Desk
Key News – Insights and Analysis
After a strong overnight gain, the US dollar eased slightly today. APAC equities were mixed, and commodities rose on a weaker USD.
Several Fed speakers appear likely to be hawkish later today.
The US dollar eased through the Asian session today after a strong rally in response to speakers from the Federal Reserve outlining the plan for interest rate increases.
Even though rating agency Fitch raised concerns and downgraded the UK’s outlook to negative, GBP/USD saw a slight rise.
The market had hoped that the Fed’s aggressive tightening stance would end earlier this week. They have been ridiculed by a number of Fed speakers, the most prominent of whom is San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly.
She has been busy over the past few days making sure the market is prepared for the next big hike at the FOMC meeting in the beginning of November.
She has said so far this week that inflation is “corrosive,” “toxic,” and “problematic” and that the people who are in pain are complaining about inflation rather than jobs.
The market anticipates a 75-basis-point increase, and the yield on a one-year Treasury is once more close to 4.20%.
The market has taken in the OPEC+ reduction of 2 million barrels per day, with the WTI futures contract hovering around US$ 89 bbl and the Brent contract hovering around US$ 93.50 bbl.
Gold traded above US$ 1,720 per ounce, a slight increase. After a slightly lower closing on Wall Street, APAC shares were mixed. While China is still on vacation, Japan was up, Hong Kong was down, and Australia was flat.
Futures indicate that the stock indices in the United States and Europe will rise today. The ECB’s September meeting minutes will be released later, and employment data for the United States will be available. Today, a number of Fed speakers are also crossing the wires.
Analytics
Despite the recent pullback, the US dollar is still in an ascending trend channel.
Even though it is below the simple moving average (SMA) of 10 days, it is still above the 55-day SMA and the 100-day SMA. This may indicate that the underlying bullish momentum may continue to develop, while the short-term momentum may be stalling.
The most recent low of 110.05 or the breaking point of 109.30 could serve as support. On the upper side, resistance can be found at the 10-day moving average (SMA), which is currently dissecting at 112.19.
DXY TECHNICAL INDICATORS
|
Support/Resistance Levels |
Price |
Key Turning Points |
|
14 Day RSI at 80% |
123.52 |
|
|
14 Day RSI at 70% |
116.34 |
|
|
52-Week High |
114.77 |
|
|
13-Week High |
114.77 |
|
|
1-Month High |
114.77 |
|
|
|
114.08 |
3-10-16 Day MACD Moving Average Stalls |
|
|
113.69 |
14-3 Day Raw Stochastic at 80% |
|
Pivot Point 3rd Level Resistance |
113.36 |
|
|
|
113.14 |
14-3 Day Raw Stochastic at 70% |
|
|
113.02 |
Price Crosses 9 Day Moving Average Stalls |
|
|
112.92 |
14 Day %k Stochastic Stalls |
|
Pivot Point 2nd Level Resistance |
112.54 |
|
|
|
112.21 |
Price Crosses 9 Day Moving Average |
|
|
112.06 |
14-3 Day Raw Stochastic at 50% |
|
|
112.06 |
38.2% Retracement From 4 Week High |
|
Pivot Point 1st Resistance Point |
111.73 |
|
|
High |
111.33 |
High |
|
Last |
111.33 |
Last |
|
|
111.29 |
Price Crosses 18 Day Moving Average |
|
|
111.22 |
50% Retracement From 4 Week High/Low |
|
|
110.98 |
14-3 Day Raw Stochastic at 30% |
|
Previous Close |
110.92 |
Previous Close |
|
|
110.91 |
Pivot Point |
|
|
110.90 |
38.2% Retracement From 13 Week High |
|
Low |
110.77 |
Low |
|
|
110.59 |
14 Day RSI at 50% |
|
|
110.43 |
14-3 Day Raw Stochastic at 20% |
|
|
110.39 |
38.2% Retracement From 4 Week Low |
|
Pivot Point 1st Support Point |
110.10 |
|
|
|
109.70 |
50% Retracement From 13 Week High/Low |
|
|
109.69 |
Price Crosses 40 Day Moving Average |
|
|
109.65 |
3-10 Day MACD Oscillator Stalls |
|
Pivot Point 2nd Support Point |
109.28 |
|
|
|
108.50 |
38.2% Retracement From 13 Week Low |
|
Pivot Point 3rd Support Point |
108.47 |
|
|
|
108.22 |
Price Crosses 18 Day Moving Average Stalls |
|
1-Month Low |
107.68 |
|
|
|
106.56 |
38.2% Retracement From 52 Week High |
|
|
105.13 |
Price Crosses 40 Day Moving Average Stalls |
|
13-Week Low |
104.63 |
|
|
14 Day RSI at 30% |
104.41 |
|
|
|
104.02 |
50% Retracement From 52 Week High/Low |
|
|
101.48 |
38.2% Retracement From 52 Week Low |
|
14 Day RSI at 20% |
96.67 |
|
|
|
96.58 |
Price Crosses 9-18 Day Moving Average |
|
52-Week Low |
93.27 |
|
|
|
83.71 |
Price Crosses 9-40 Day Moving Average |
|
|
60.30 |
Price Crosses 18-40 Day Moving Average |
|
|
N/A |
14 Day %d Stochastic Stalls |
Blue areas lower the Last Price will tend to provide support to limit the downward move.
Red areas higher the Last Price will tend to provide resistance to limit the upward move.
Blue areas higher the Last Price will tend to provide support to confirm the upward move.
Red areas lower the Last Price will tend to provide resistance to confirm the downward move.
