Market Considerations and Analytics
Key Notes
In the close range, beans finished with gains of 11 1/2 to 14 1/4 cents; however, by the November 2023 contract, the gains had been reduced to a cent loss. Meal futures saw a daily gain of $5.40 to $7.40. Prices for the front month BO were 32 to 35 points higher on the day. Still 14.63 cents/lb below the monthly peak, the Jan BO contract.
Under the daily reporting method, the USDA reported a sale of 718,000 MT of soybeans to “multiple destinations” this morning. 118,000 more MT were being shipped to China.
For the week that concluded on December 1, the USDA reported that weekly bean bookings were 1.716 MMT. That was 31% greater than the same week last year and more than double what it was the previous week. The season’s total supplies were 21.17 MMT, or 2.25 MMT for the week. Relative to the USDA’s WASDE projection, which is 5.2% behind, this still falls behind last year by 16%. Bookings for the new crop were 30k MT as opposed to the initial expectation of 0-250k MT. The 40k MT of forward sales are made in total.
In terms of the items, traders anticipated soymeal sales of between 150k and 350k MT (actual: 226,200) and BO bookings of under 10k MT actual figure was just 500 MT The total number of shipments for soy oil and meal combined is 11.8 MT.
According to Chinese customs, the country imported 80.6 MMT of soybeans from January through November, an 8% decrease over the previous year.
Brazil’s CONAB reduced its forecast for soybean production by about 60k MT from November to 153.48 MMT. The Brazilian soy crop is expected to produce 152.5 MMT on average, which, if realized, would be 500k MT more than USDA’s November projection. The entire range is between UNCH and 155.1 MMT. Calculated reduction in Argentina is 700k MT to 48.8 MMT.
