VOT Research Desk
Market Analytics and Technical Considerations
As CBT finished 3 to 4 3/4 cents in the red on Friday, the wheat futures market added further to the fall. KC HRW futures for the front months concluded the day with losses ranging from 3 3/4 to 5 1/4 cents. On Friday, the price of spring wheat futures fell by 2 1/4 to 3 1/4 cents. For contracts in December, the weekly changes were -1.3% in SRW, -0.98% in HRW, and +0.6% in HRS.
As of 11/15, according to weekly CFTC data, CBT wheat specs were net short 46,780 contracts. Due to more prolonged clearance, the net short position was 3,878 contracts larger throughout the week. The funds were cutting their net long in HRW by 3,152 contracts, bringing it down to 21,281. After a significant long clearance during the week (54% of existing spec longs were closed), managed money traders in MGE HRS wheat were 2,897 contracts fewer net long, to only 158 contracts.
Wheat imports into China increased by 157% year over year to 1.24 MMT in October, according to customs data. Customs recorded 7.87 MMT of wheat during October of this year, 2.6% less than the same period time in 2021.
Argentina’s Economy Ministry predicts a 13.4 MMT wheat crop for the current growing season, down 39.4% from the previous year due to a both protracted dryness and severe frost in the south.
22 Dec CBOT Wheat fell 3 1/2 cents to $8.03 1/4 at the closing.
Wheat on the CBOT closed on March 23 at $8.22, down 3 cents.
Wheat futures were trading at $7.37 1/2, down 3 5/8 cents.
22 Dec KCBT Wheat lost 3 3/4 cents to close at $9.34 1/4.
Cash HRW Wheat price fell by 21 1/4 cents to $8.93 1/2.
MGEX Wheat ended the day on December 22 at $9.51 1/2, down 2 1/4 cents.
Technical Summary
|
US Wheat
802.10 |
Moving Averages: |
Strong Sell |
Strong Sell |
Strong Sell |
Strong Sell |
|
Indicators: |
Sell |
Strong Sell |
Strong Sell |
Strong Sell |
|
|
Summary: |
Strong Sell |
Strong Sell |
Strong Sell |
Strong Sell |
Pivots
|
Name |
S3 |
S2 |
S1 |
Pivot Points |
R1 |
R2 |
R3 |
|
US Wheat |
798.74 |
799.81 |
801.16 |
802.23 |
803.58 |
804.65 |
806.0 |
Indicators
US Wheat Futures
|
Name |
Value |
Action |
|
RSI(14) |
40.171 |
Sell |
|
STOCH(9,6) |
23.946 |
Sell |
|
STOCHRSI(14) |
3.920 |
Oversold |
|
MACD(12,26) |
-1.470 |
Sell |
|
ADX(14) |
27.662 |
Sell |
|
Williams %R |
-89.196 |
Oversold |
|
Name |
Value |
Action |
|
CCI(14) |
-130.6174 |
Sell |
|
ATR(14) |
4.7000 |
Less Volatility |
|
Highs/Lows(14) |
-4.1600 |
Sell |
|
Ultimate Oscillator |
41.094 |
Sell |
|
ROC |
-0.914 |
Sell |
|
Bull/Bear Power(13) |
-6.7400 |
Sell |
|
Buy:0 |
Sell:9 |
Neutral:0 |
Indicators Summary: Sell |
