VOT Research Desk
Nov 3
Market Analytics and Considerations
After the impulsive response to the Federal Reserve rate announcement, AUD/USD is struggling to maintain its position and may follow the downward slope in the 50-Day SMA (0.6539) after unsuccessful attempts to challenge the October high (0.6547).
AS A RESULT OF FAILURE TO TEST OCTOBER HIGH, AUD/USD TRADES TO A NEW WEEKLY LOW (0.6344).
TO TRACK 50-DAY SMA IN AUD/USD The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) maintains a hawkish forward directions, and it appears that the central bank will maintain its approach to countering inflation as the committee accepts that “incoming data since our last meeting suggest that the utmost rate of interest rates will be higher than before expected.
Due to Chairman Jerome Powell’s attention that “it is very early” to halt the treks cycle and the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, which is expected to show a strong labor market, may give the FOMC more leeway to pursue a restricted policy, the US Dollar may continue to outperform its Australian counterpart.
After a 263K job growth in September, the US economy is anticipated to add 200K jobs in October. This encouraging outcome could fuel conjecture for yet another 75bp rate increase as Chairman Powell cautions that “there’s no feeling that inflation is coming down.”
As a result, the AUD/USD exchange rate may experience difficulties for the rest of the year as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) shows little interest in implementing a constrictive policy and the recent exchange rate vulnerability may contribute to the shift in consumer sentiment viewed earlier this current year.
Report shows 68.32% of traders are currently net-long AUD/USD, The long/short trader to trader ratio is 2.16 to 1.
The number of investors who are net-long is down 0.43% from yesterday and up 17.64% from the previous week, while the number of traders who are net-short is up 9.83% from yesterday and down 15.52% from the previous week. In contrast, the reduction in net-short positions occurs as the currency rate trades to a new weekly low. The increase in net-long interest has fueled the crowding behavior, as 60.77% of traders were net-long AUD/USD last week (0.6344).
The AUD/USD may be negatively impacted by the NFP report if the update feeds expectations for a further 75bp Fed rise in interest rates, and the rate may follow the downward slope of the 50-Day SMA (0.6539) as it retreats before hitting the October top (0.6547).
Technical Parameters – Daily
Pivots
|
Name |
S3 |
S2 |
S1 |
Pivot Points |
R1 |
R2 |
R3 |
|
Classic |
0.6153 |
0.6250 |
0.6299 |
0.6396 |
0.6445 |
0.6542 |
0.6591 |
|
Fibonacci |
0.6250 |
0.6306 |
0.6340 |
0.6396 |
0.6452 |
0.6486 |
0.6542 |
|
Camarilla |
0.6309 |
0.6322 |
0.6336 |
0.6396 |
0.6362 |
0.6376 |
0.6389 |
|
Woodie’s |
0.6129 |
0.6238 |
0.6275 |
0.6384 |
0.6421 |
0.6530 |
0.6567 |
|
DeMark’s |
– |
– |
0.6275 |
0.6384 |
0.6421 |
– |
– |
Indicators
|
Name |
Value |
Action |
|
RSI(14) |
41.920 |
Sell |
|
STOCH(9,6) |
53.504 |
Neutral |
|
STOCHRSI(14) |
34.321 |
Sell |
|
MACD(12,26) |
-0.004 |
Sell |
|
ADX(14) |
23.902 |
Sell |
|
Williams %R |
-63.158 |
Sell |
|
CCI(14) |
-27.8067 |
Neutral |
|
ATR(14) |
0.0109 |
Less Volatility |
|
Highs/Lows(14) |
0.0000 |
Neutral |
|
Ultimate Oscillator |
39.121 |
Sell |
|
ROC |
1.904 |
Buy |
|
Bull/Bear Power(13) |
-0.0060 |
Sell |
|
Buy: 1 Sell: 7 Neutral: 3 Summary: STRONG SELL |
||
SMA
|
Period |
Simple |
Exponential |
|
MA5 |
0.6373 |
0.6361 |
|
MA10 |
0.6389 |
0.6363 |
|
MA20 |
0.6337 |
0.6390 |
|
MA50 |
0.6539 |
0.6510 |
|
MA100 |
0.6727 |
0.6690 |
|
MA200 |
0.6973 |
0.6890 |
|
Buy: 0 Sell: 12 Summary: STRONG SELL |
||
