Bitcoin is currently trading in a cautiously optimistic tone, hovering near $116,800–$117,300 as of U.S. markets closing—buoyed by a landmark executive order that could democratize crypto access in retirement accounts. At the same time, the crypto remains sensitive to fresh tariff rhetoric, preventing a full breakout.
Over the past 24 hours, BTC/USD saw a 3–4% rally, rising from a low in the $113K–$114K zone. The momentum gained traction following the policy update, though macro jitters nudged volatility upward and tempered enthusiasm.
Macro and Fundamental Drivers
1. U.S. Policy Shift Opens Doors for Crypto in 401(k)s
On 7 August 2025, President Trump signed an executive order instructing the Department of Labor to revisit fiduciary guidelines, potentially enabling 401(k) plans to include digital assets like Bitcoin. This stirred immediate institutional interest, with Bitcoin spiking nearly 2% to over $117,300.
2. Escalating Tariff Risks Curb Broader Market Sentiment
Simultaneously, Trump unveiled sweeping new tariffs—a level not seen since 1934—which sparked caution across global markets. These tariffs have curbed risk appetite, limiting further upside in speculative assets like Bitcoin.
3. Technical Squeeze and Cautious Optimism
Recent technical studies warn of a possible “head fake” in price gains above $115K, suggesting caution amid strong volume but restrained conviction. Glassnode’s data also pointed to indecisiveness among short-term holders following recent highs .
Upcoming Economic Events
On 8 August, there are no high-impact U.S. macroeconomic releases pending in the immediate hours post-U.S. close. Therefore, attention now centers squarely on the continued policy fallout, institutional flows, and speeches ahead, rather than scheduled economic data.
Technical Analysis Overview
Bitcoin’s price action is consolidating post-$115K breakout. The chart structure shows a potential bull flag pattern in play, indicative of continuation if broken upward.
Support Levels:
Immediate support around $115,000. Deeper support near $113,500–$114,000, reflecting recent intraday lows and range base
Resistance Levels:
Immediate resistance at $117,500–$117,800 (psychological and recent high)
A breakout above $118K–$120K could target cycle highs (July range above $123K)
Momentum Indicators:
RSI is elevated but not extreme, suggesting room for continuation
MACD reflects bullish crossover, though narrowing
Trading volumes saw a spike alongside the policy-driven move, lending credibility but also caution.
Sentiment Summary
Retail & Institutional Outlook: IG retail sentiment is likely trending bullish following the 401(k) order, though Glassnode indicates short-term holder uncertainty post-peak.
Futures Positioning & CFTC COT: A recent trend suggests neutral-to-bullish net positioning in crypto derivatives, though no fresh CFTC data is cited.
Risk Appetite: Diverging signals, with tariff fears weighing on broader risk, but policy support for crypto boosting targeted sentiment.
Short‑Term Outlook, Conclusion & Caution for Traders
Bitcoin’s immediate bias is mildly bullish, supported by sweeping institutional tailwinds enabled via the 401(k) policy shift. The $117K–$118K zone remains the immediate obstacle, while $115K stands as critical support. A breakout could catalyze another leg toward $120K+, though elevated policy and macro risks could spark sharp reversals.
Given mixed signals, bullish policy developments versus macroeconomic and tariff headwinds, caution is advised. Watch for volume confirmation on breakouts and monitor short-term holder behavior.
This is not financial advice, but rather an analytical perspective underlined by recent developments and confirmed data
Disclaimer: This blog is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult a professional advisor before making investment decisions.
