Oct 20, 2022

VOT Research Desk

The USD/JPY advance may overcome the 150.00 threshold and enable a possible move to the 150.60 area. Observation for the next 24 hours: Yesterday, we underlined that USD ‘may continue to gain even if we still think that 150.00 unlikely to come into view for now’.

As USD increased to a high of 149.90, our assessment was correct. Despite the progress, rising momentum has not significantly changed.

Although a breach above 150.00 would not be unexpected, it is doubtful that USD would be able to sustain a foothold above this level. It’s doubtful that the following resistance at 150.60 will be seen as well.

A breach of 149.20 (minor support is at 149.50) would signal a decrease in the upward pressure now present on the downside. Late last week, we changed our stance on the USD.

In our most recent story from Monday (17 October, spot at 148.50), we stated that although circumstances are severely overbought, additional USD rise to 150.00 is not completely ruled out. The USD reached a high of 149.90 yesterday (19 Oct).

If 150.00 is broken from here, the USD is expected to gain more strength. However, it can take some time until the next barrier at 150.60 is seen.

Overall, the main indication that the USD is unlikely to rise further is a break of 148.50 (the strong support level was at 147.90 yesterday).

Oct 18, 2022

VOT Research Desk

During Tuesday’s mid-Asian session, USD/JPY pulls up bids to consolidate the daily losses at 148.90. As a result, the yen pair breaks a nine-day advance and oscillates around the multi-year high. However, the continuous trading of the quotation within of the 50-SMA and the three-day-old bullish channel challenges the bears. The firmer RSI may be in the same vein (14).

To tempt selling, the bearish MACD signals are combined with Monday’s U-turn from the prior support level from October 13, which is now resistance at 149.50.

However, between the support line of the indicated channel, at 148.70, and the aforementioned support-turned-resistance around 149.50, the USD/JPY pair is expected to continue moving higher. The 150.00 level and September’s top of 145.90 should be noted as additional filters for the pair traders to check for definite directions.

If the price remains firmer over 150.00, it is possible that it will rise toward the high of August 1990, which was close to 151.65, and then toward the peak of the year 1990, which was 160.20.

Alternately, numerous peaks seen in early September at 145.00 might put the USD/JPY bears on the defensive past 145.90.

Oct, 12 2022

VOT Research Desk

In the early European session, US stock index futures are up between 0.7% and 1.1%, signaling an uptick in market sentiment.

Tuesday’s Consumer Expectations Survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York revealed that consumer expectations for inflation over the next year dropped from 5.7% in August to a new 12-month low of 5.4%.

In the Asian session, the USD/JPY rose to a new multi-decade high of 146.38, surpassing the price at which the Bank of Japan intervened in late September.

Although Japanese Chief Cabinet Hirokazu Secretary stated that they were closely monitoring FX fluctuations and will take necessary action, a deep correction was not sparked by his remarks.

The pair was trading over 146.00 as of the time of writing and in positive territory.

Oct, 11 2022

VOT Research Desk

Recent events have put the USD/JPY currency pair on the verge of testing year-to-date highs at 145.90—the 22nd of September. This move was predicted by many professionals, and more outperformance is projected with a break of 145.90 breaking a 24-year high. The unit has been trending since the beginning of 2021, with parabolic upside occurring in March and April of 2022. It is currently just a few centimeters away from weekly Quasimodo resistance at 146.79.

Be aware that a weekly 100% projection (a bearish AB=CD pattern) is located at 149.66, right above the price of 146.79. Weekly support is right behind daily support in terms of supporting structure, coming in at 137.23.

The 22nd of September high at 145.90 is expected to be tested on the H1 due to the ongoing upswing, with a push perhaps sparking breakout buying to take on 146. Breakout buyers may potentially be drawn above this area, focusing on the weekly Quasimodo resistance level at 146.79.

Price has been trading above the 200-day simple moving average, which is now at $128.84, since February 2021, which helps identify trends even more. In addition, the SMA has been pointing upward since April 2021, which is a common trend-following strategy.

Turning to the H1 timeframe, a brief retest of resistance-turned-support at 145.32 occurred in the early hours of European trade. As previously mentioned, renewed bidding later emerged and brought price within striking distance of the 145.90 top (22nd September) and 146; a break of this region would cause the currency pair to retest 24-month highs and possibly start moving in the direction of the weekly timeframe’s Quasimodo resistance from 146.79.

Last Refreshed: 01, Oct 2022

VOT Research Desk

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Sep 28, 2022, 10:00PM+7:00

VOT Research Desk

Analytical Viewpoint

Daily Pivots: (S1) 144.29; (P) 144.60; (R1) 145.14;

The forecast for USD/JPY remains unchanged as consolidation goes on. Intraday bias is initially neutral. As long as resistance turned support at 139.37 holds, further surge is anticipated.

 Break of 145.89 will aim for long-term resistance at 147.68. However, a clear break below 139.37 will signal a short-term topping on the downside. Back towards the 130.38 support, there would be a deeper drop.

The overall uptrend from 75.56, which includes the uptrend from 101.18, is continuing in process (2011 low). Upward movement should continue to 147.68 (1998 high).

 For the time being, a break of support around 130.38 must occur before there is a medium-term topping signal. Otherwise, even in the event of a severe pullback, the prognosis will remain favorable.

Sep 28, 2022, 08:00AM+7:00

VOT Research Desk

Analytical Viewpoint USD/JPY

As US Treasury yields continue to rise, the USD/JPY is approaching its yearly high (145.90). New data coming out of the US may support the exchange rate as the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index is anticipated to show sticky inflation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 144.24; (P) 144.58; (R1) 145.10;

According to the IG Client Sentiment report, only 24.32% of traders are net long USD/JPY at the moment, with the short-to-long ratio resting at 3.11 to 1.

The number of traders who are net-long is down 1.28% from yesterday and down 18.44% from the previous week, while the number of traders who are net-short is up 5.34% from yesterday and down 0.26% from the previous week. While the fall in net-short interest hasn’t done much to lessen the crowding behavior, as of last week, 28.21% of traders were net-long the pair, the decline in net-long position comes as USD/JPY approaches the yearly high (145.90).

However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) appears to be veering away from price as the recent advance in the exchange rate fails to push the oscillator into oversold territory. This is despite the fact that an increase in the core US PCE may cause a bullish reaction in USD/JPY as it fuels speculation for another 75bp Fed rate hike.

Sep 26, 2022, 07:30PM+7:00

VOT Research Desk

Analytical Viewpoint USD/JPY

Daily Pivots: (S1) 142.27; (P) 142.87; (R1) 143.96;

The USD/JPY intraday tendency remains neutral for consolidation below 145.89. As long as resistance turned support at 139.37 holds, further surge is anticipated. Break of 145.89 will aim for long-term resistance at 147.68.

However, a clear break below 139.37 will signal a short-term topping on the downside. Back towards the 130.38 support, there would be a deeper drop.

The overall uptrend from 75.56, which includes the uptrend from 101.18, is continuing in process (2011 low).

Upward movement should continue to 147.68 (1998 high).

For the time being, a break of support around 130.38 must occur before there is a medium-term topping signal. Otherwise, even in the event of a severe pullback, the prognosis will remain favorable.

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Last Refreshed: Sep 19 11:5 EDT

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Sep 16, 2022 07:03AM (GMT-4:00)

VOT Research Desk

Technical Breakdown

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Last Refreshed: Sep 16, 11:20 EDT

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VOT Research Desk

Daily Technical Indicators:

 This gauge shows a summary of the technical analysis in real time for the timeframe you’ve chosen. Based on the most prominent technical indicators, including Moving Averages, Oscillators, and Pivots, the U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen summary is provided.

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VOT Research Desk

Daily Technical Indicators:

 This gauge shows a summary of the technical analysis in real time for the timeframe you’ve chosen. Based on the most prominent technical indicators, including Moving Averages, Oscillators, and Pivots, the U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen summary is provided.

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