VOT Research Desk
Market Analytics and Considerations
- The bearish impact on the EURUSD has been successfully overcome.
- Early on Wednesday, market sentiment improves as geopolitical tensions subside.
- If the pair verifies that 1.0400 is support, it may move higher still.
Fundamental and Technical Review
After reaching its highest level since early June at 1.0480 in the early American session on Tuesday, the EURUSD made a sharp U-turn and fell below 1.0300.However, as risk flows returned to the markets early on Wednesday, the pair has regained momentum and moved toward 1.0400.The technical outlook demonstrates that the bullish bias will remain for the foreseeable future.
The US Producer Price Index (PPI) data, which came in lower than expected, sparked a selloff in the US dollar on Tuesday and fueled the rally in EURUSD. Investors were compelled to move away from risk-sensitive assets as a result of reports that two Russian-made missiles had struck Poland near the Ukraine border toward the end of the American session, which contributed to the USD’s rebound.
According to the most recent news reports, Ukrainian forces may have launched missiles at Polan in response to Russian missiles. The market mood appears to be improving and geopolitical tensions appear to be decreasing as a result of this development.US stock index futures were slightly higher on the day as of press time.
The October Retail Sales data will be made available by the US Census Bureau in the second half of the day. From $684 billion in September, markets anticipate a 1 percent increase in sales in October. The market reaction should be brief given that this data, which does not take price changes into account, is unlikely to change how the market prices the Fed’s rate outlook.
As a result, EURUSD’s movement in the second half of the day may continue to be driven by risk sentiment. Regardless of the Retail Sales report, the US Dollar (USD) may have a difficult time remaining resilient against its rivals if Wall Street’s main indexes build on Tuesday’s gains.
Technical Picture
After falling below the ascending regression channel late on Tuesday, EURUSD has re-entered it. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the four-hour chart advancing toward 70 and the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) remaining intact both confirm the near-term bullish bias.
As initial resistance, 1.0400 (psychological level, static level) aligns. EURUSD could move on to 1.0500 (psychological level, static level) and 1.0460 (static level) if it reaches that level and begins to use it as support.
On the downside, 1.0350 (static level, 20-period SMA) serves as initial support ahead of 1.0300 (psychological level, static level) and 1.0250.
Daily Simple Moving Averages
|
Name |
MA5 |
MA10 |
MA20 |
MA50 |
MA100 |
MA200 |
|
EUR/USD |
1.0329 |
1.0146 |
1.0026 |
0.9916 |
1.0026 |
1.0422 |
EUR/USD
|
Name |
Value |
Action |
|
RSI(14) |
69.883 |
Buy |
|
STOCH(9,6) |
72.579 |
Buy |
|
STOCHRSI(14) |
100.000 |
Overbought |
|
MACD(12,26) |
0.012 |
Buy |
|
ADX(14) |
35.864 |
Buy |
|
Williams %R |
-9.641 |
Overbought |
|
Name |
Value |
Action |
|
CCI(14) |
144.2618 |
Buy |
|
ATR(14) |
0.0143 |
High Volatility |
|
Highs/Lows(14) |
0.0282 |
Buy |
|
Ultimate Oscillator |
66.174 |
Buy |
|
ROC |
4.487 |
Buy |
|
Bull/Bear Power(13) |
0.0457 |
Buy |
|
Buy:9 |
Sell:0 |
Neutral:0 |
Indicators Summary: Buy |
Candlestick Pattern
Candle Time Nov 16, 2022 03:00AM 1 Candles Ago
Indication Bearish reversal
Reliability Medium
Description During an uptrend, the market builds strength on a long white candlestick and gaps up on the second candlestick. However, the second candlestick trades within a small range and closes at or near its open. This scenario generally shows erosion of confidence in the current trend. Confirmation of a trend reversal would be a lower open on the next candle.
