Market Analytics and Technical Considerations
Key Points
- Following Wednesday’s surge, the EUR/USD has begun to consolidate its gains.
- Due to the poor PMI surveys and FOMC minutes, the US dollar is still under price pressure.
- To advance further, the pair must break through 1.0450.
EUR/USD- Fundamental and Technical Estimates
Early on Thursday, the EUR/USD managed to advance after making significant gains on Wednesday. The pair’s short-term technical picture indicates overbought conditions, although buyers might still be in charge if it turns into support at 1.0450.
The US Dollar had significant selloff on Wednesday during American trading hours after S&P Global PMI surveys revealed that the private sector’s economic activity experienced a significant contraction in early November. The PMI for manufacturing fell to 47.6 from 50.4 and the PMI for services fell to 46.1 from 47.8. Regarding price changes, the journal reported that “firms boosted their selling prices at the weakest pace just for over two years, reflecting the slower growth of input costs.”
The Federal Reserve’s most recent meeting’s minutes, which were released later in the day, showed that the majority of policymakers supported reducing the rate of rate increases amid the uncertainty surrounding the policy lag. After the Fed’s release, the US Dollar lost ground versus its rivals while EUR/USD maintained its upward pace.
The German IFO sentiment polls will be discussed in the European economic agenda, but it is unlikely that they will have a big impact on the markets. The US stock and bond markets will be closed in celebration of the Thanksgiving Day Holiday, so there won’t likely be much trading activity in the second half of the day. Investors will therefore closely monitor any technical changes in the pair.
Technical Estimates
During Wednesday’s rally, the four-hour chart’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator rose over 70, indicating overbought circumstances. 1.0400 (psychological level, old resistance), in the event that the pair experiences a technical correction, is likely to serve as support. Sellers may become active and push the pair lower toward 1.0350 (the 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA)) and 1.0300 if it breaks through that level and begins to act as resistance (20-period SMA, psychological level).
On the upside, 1.0450 serves as a temporary resistance level (static level). Further advances to 1.0500 (psychological level) and 1.0530 (static tier) could be seen if buyers turn that level into support.
Simple Moving Averages- Daily
|
Name |
MA5 |
MA10 |
MA20 |
MA50 |
MA100 |
MA200 |
|
EUR/USD |
1.0345 |
1.0348 |
1.0171 |
0.9962 |
1.0029 |
1.0387 |
Summary: STRONG BUY
Moving Averages: Buy (12)Sell (0)
Technical Indicators :Buy (10)Sell (0)
Pivot Points
|
Name |
S3 |
S2 |
S1 |
Pivot Points |
R1 |
R2 |
R3 |
|
Classic |
1.0214 |
1.0256 |
1.0337 |
1.0378 |
1.0459 |
1.0500 |
1.0581 |
|
Fibonacci |
1.0256 |
1.0302 |
1.0331 |
1.0378 |
1.0425 |
1.0454 |
1.0500 |
|
Camarilla |
1.0384 |
1.0396 |
1.0407 |
1.0378 |
1.0429 |
1.0440 |
1.0452 |
|
Woodie’s |
1.0234 |
1.0266 |
1.0357 |
1.0388 |
1.0479 |
1.0510 |
1.0601 |
|
DeMark’s |
– |
– |
1.0358 |
1.0389 |
1.0480 |
– |
– |
Technical Indicators
|
Name |
Value |
Action |
|
RSI(14) |
66.020 |
Buy |
|
STOCH(9,6) |
66.361 |
Buy |
|
STOCHRSI(14) |
74.307 |
Buy |
|
MACD(12,26) |
0.013 |
Buy |
|
ADX(14) |
35.509 |
Buy |
|
Williams %R |
-11.253 |
Overbought |
|
CCI(14) |
103.4994 |
Buy |
|
ATR(14) |
0.0119 |
Less Volatility |
|
Highs/Lows(14) |
0.0083 |
Buy |
|
Ultimate Oscillator |
58.637 |
Buy |
|
ROC |
4.002 |
Buy |
|
Bull/Bear Power(13) |
0.0269 |
Buy |
|
Buy: 10 Sell: 0 Neutral: 0 Summary: STRONG BUY |
||
Moving Averages
|
Period |
Simple |
Exponential |
|
MA5 |
1.0345 |
1.0372 |
|
MA10 |
1.0347 |
1.0305 |
|
MA20 |
1.0171 |
1.0209 |
|
MA50 |
0.9962 |
1.0080 |
|
MA100 |
1.0029 |
1.0130 |
|
MA200 |
1.0387 |
1.0396 |
|
Buy: 12
Sell: 0 Summary: BUY |
||
