EUR/USD Technical Outlook
Upside Potential
For the EUR/USD pair to extend its upward trajectory, it would first need to surpass the 2025 high at 1.1830, recorded on July 1. A break beyond that could open the door toward the notable June 2018 peak of 1.1852 seen on June 14.
Downside Risk
Should the pair fall below its recent floor at 1.1556 (as seen on July 17), it may trigger a decline toward the 55-day simple moving average near 1.1472, followed by support at 1.1210 (weekly low from May 29) and potentially slide down to 1.1064, the May 12 trough. The final psychological barrier lies at 1.1000, a critical zone for sentiment and structural support.
Momentum Indicators
Short-term momentum has started to weaken. The RSI has dipped below 47, hinting at fading bullish strength, while the ADX, hovering close to 25, suggests the current directional move remains relatively indecisive.
Outlook Ahead
Ongoing uncertainties in U.S. trade policies and a growing divergence between Federal Reserve and ECB stances may weigh on the euro’s ability to maintain upward momentum. However, any dovish shift from the Fed or signs of easing in global trade tensions could quickly reignite bullish interest in the euro.
