VOT Research Desk
The recent New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) report indicates that while the economy of New Zealand is expected to be resilient during the upcoming year, the growth estimates for 2025 and 2026 may be revised downward.
Over the next year, the dampening effect of interest rate rises on economic activity will become more obvious as more fixed-term mortgages have their prices adjusted. Beyond 2024, household consumption has been reduced.
The predictions of export growth have been lowered lower for years following 2023, notwithstanding a good starting position for growth in exports. Consensus The prospect for GDP growth over the coming years is uncertain.
Annual GDP growth has been revised up to 3.1 percent and 1.1 percent, respectively, for the years ending in March 2023 and 2024. Forecasts for growth past 2024, however, have been lowered.
In the upcoming years, it is anticipated that the NZD will track near 71 on the TWI.
Despite remaining above the RBNZ’s inflation target mid-point of 2 percent, annual CPI is predicted to moderate to 3.4 percent in 2024 and ease to 2.2 percent in 2026.
Over the projection horizon, the outlook for interest rates has once more been revised upward.
