Highlights
Today the BoJ is going to be highlighted, featuring Board Member Adachi scheduled to give a speech.
After current rate rise talk, Japanese consumer trust statistics are particularly worth noting for investors for the USDJPY trend.
Late in the afternoon, markets ought to pay close attention to FOMC member comments amid betting on a Sept US Fed rate decrease fade.
Fundamental View of USDJPY Cross rate
On Wednesday, the Yen continued to fall, weighed lower by an overall market decline fueled by fear of risk. In addition, Bank of BoJ’s Adachi maintained a softer posture at a talk, which might contribute to the yen’s drop and strengthen the USDJPY pairing.
Adachi highlighted the possible effects of rapid monetary policy adjustments on calming foreign currency motions. Noting that large variations in rates of interest could interfere with consumer and corporate investments. He additionally pointed out that the Bank of Japan remains yet to be convinced of continuous accomplishment in its pricing objective. Underlining the importance of maintaining accommodating circumstances.
Analysts expect the index of consumer confidence to rise from 38.3 towards 38.9 in the month of May. Consumer mood is improving, which might indicate an increase in expenditure. Consequently, spending by customers may boost driven by demand inflation, allowing the Bank of Japan to increase the rate of interest.
Near-Term Projection
The USDJPY’s immediate movements will be determined by Japanese consumer confidence data. In addition to Japanese and American inflation indicators. Nevertheless, future advice from the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve should also be considered. Aggressive US Fed talk leaves economic dispersion strongly skewed against the USD.
| Dollar Index (DXY) | 104.660 | +0.121 | +0.12% |
USDJPY Technical Analysis (Based on daily Plot)
The USDJPY duo held safely over the 50 & 200 D-EMAs, confirming positive pricing signs.
A USDJPY breakthrough past the 157.5 mark could encourage a move back to 158 mark. An increase over 158 level might put the April 29th top of 160.209 under contention.
The confidence of consumer data from Japan, as well as monetary authority comments, should be considered.
In contrast, a USDJPY breach beneath the 156.50 handle level could allow the sellers an opportunity close to the 50 D- EMA. A loss beneath the 50-d exponential moving average might indicate a decline towards the 151.68 supporting point. The 14-day time frame RSI at 62.06 implies that pair will recover to its April 29th top of 160.20 mark. Prior hitting overheated zone.
Technical Indicators & Signals
| Name | Value | Action |
| RSI(14) | 62.894 | Buy |
| STOCH(9,6) | 89.213 | Overbought* Caution |
| STOCHRSI(14) | 100.000 | Overbought |
| MACD(12,26) | 0.810 | Buy |
| ADX(14) | 48.588 | Buy |
| Williams %R | -1.963 | Overbought* Caution |
| CCI(14) | 129.7691 | Buy |
| ATR(14) | 0.7996 | Less Volatility* |
| Highs/Lows(14) | 0.7021 | Buy |
| Ultimate Oscillator | 64.393 | Buy* Overbought |
| ROC | 1.206 | Buy* |
| Bull/Bear Power(13) | 1.5830 | Buy |
Daily Pivots
| Name | S3 | S2 | S1 | Pivot Points | R1 | R2 | R3 |
| Classic | 156.13 | 156.35 | 156.75 | 156.98 | 157.38 | 157.60 | 158.00 |
| Fibonacci | 156.35 | 156.59 | 156.74 | 156.98 | 157.22 | 157.37 | 157.60 |
| Camarilla | 156.99 | 157.05 | 157.10 | 156.98 | 157.22 | 157.27 | 157.33 |
| Woodie’s | 156.23 | 156.41 | 156.85 | 157.03 | 157.48 | 157.66 | 158.10 |
| DeMark’s | – | – | 156.87 | 157.04 | 157.49 | – |
