USD Index is under pressure around 105.50. Awaiting NFP report. Near 105.90, the index appears to have encountered some opposition.

USD Index (DXY). The dollar begins Thursday’s European trading hours marginally defensively in the 105.50 area.  The index moves within a constrained range while maintaining a broad consolidative posture. This is in turn supported by rising caution ahead of the Friday publication of the US jobs report.

USD Index examines statistics and yields.

While waiting for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 50 basis points at the March 22 event, markets are still analyzing Powell’s testimony from Tue and Wed.

FedWatch Tool data collected by CME Group indicates that the likelihood of a half-point increase in March is currently hovering around 77%.  Up from just over 9 percent a month earlier.

Initial Jobless Claims will be the only publication in the docket that is supported by FOMC M. Barr’s speech.

USD, what is to look out for?

Given the impending release of the US Non-Farm Payrolls. The index is anticipated to maintain its cautious posture again for the time to be March 10.

The greenback currently seems to be well sustained by firmer predictions of a 50 basis point rate increase. at the Fed meeting later.  This opinion has been supported by aggressive remarks made by Fed speakers for several weeks. Most recently Chief Powell was at both of his testimony sessions early in the week.

Additionally, the Federal Reserve’s tighter-for-longer attitude appears to be supported by the overall net resilience. The job market’s strength, and the still high inflation rate.

Additionally, the Federal Reserve’s tighter-for-longer attitude appears to be supported by the overall net resilience. The job market’s strength, and the still high inflation rate.

Important Key Events

Initial Jobless Claims (Thursday), Nonfarm Payrolls, the Unemployment Rate, and the Monthly Budget Statement are the major happenings in the US this week (Friday).

NFP Forecast

Important problems with the rear boiler: increasing belief in a soft impact on the US economy. Ongoing myth supporting a Fed policy of ongoing tightening. Near 5.5% terminal rates?

Fed’s reversal. Political effervescence in connection to China and Russia. US-China economic dispute.

Relevant levels for the US dollar

The index is currently down 0.15 percent at 105.50. And, a break of 104.09 (the week’s bottom from March 1) would lead to 103.52 (the 55-day SMA) and then 102.58. (weekly bottom Feb 14).

The next upward hurdle, however, lines up at 105.88 (2023 top March 8), followed by 106.60 (200-day SMA). And, finally 107.19. Weekly top of Nov 30, 2022.

Candlestick Analysis

Candle Time: Mar 09, 2023 Candle Ago

Indication Positive revival

Reliability Low.

Description: In a downtrend, the price opens lower, and trades higher. But ends close to its open, giving the appearance of a reversed lollipop. The following candlestick needs to be confirmed as positive.