Highlights
The AUD strengthens as international conflicts in the Middle Eastern increase.
The AUD could face hurdles as the Australian Stock Exchange 200 Benchmark falls.
The US greenback gains strength as investors show anxiety over Jerusalem’s probable retaliation to the Islamic Republic of Iran strike.
AUD Fundamental Events & Backdrop
The AUD recovered on Monday from the 2-month bottom of 0.6456 mark set on Friday of last week. Nevertheless, the AUDUSD cross faced challenges as investors seek safety in the U.S. dollar amid rising region-specific hostilities.
The AUD could encounter more hurdles as the benchmark ASX 200 Composite fell. Showing market fears over Israeli’s potential reprisal reaction to Iranian strike on Sat. Iranian used deadly missiles and drones to strike military installations in Israel. While Israelis apparently destroying nearly each of the inbound munitions.
Despite bullish opinion towards the Fed’s (Fed) fiscal policy perspective, the DXY edged down. Robust inflation in the US along with positive financial signs are prompting the US Fed to reconsider fiscal relaxation. Investors are likely to keep an eye on the US sales to retailer’s numbers, which will be revealed today, in addition to Fed-speak event.
US Retail Sales Histogram
| Components | Last | Previous | Unit | Reference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Retail Sales Mo-Mo | 0.30 | -0.80 | percent | Feb 2024 |
| US Retail Sales Ex-Gas/Auto MooMo | 0.30 | -0.80 | percent | Feb 2024 |
| Calendar | GMT | Ref | Actual | Last | Assent | Forecast | |
| 2024-02-15 | 01:30 PM | Jan | -0.8% | 0.4% | -0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 2024-03-14 | 12:30 PM | Feb | 0.6% | -1.1% | 0.8% | 0.5% | |
| 2024-04-15 | 12:30 PM | Mar | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.4% | ||
Technical Analysis
The AUD is trading at 0.6481 on Monday. The technical outlook indicates a negative attitude towards the AUDUSD set. With the MACD under the center point with an oscillation beneath the trend line. Major supporting emerges at the primary point of 0.6450. A decline beneath this mark may drive the duo to explore the area near the psychological threshold of 0.6400 level. On the way up, the duo pair could encounter barrier at the psychological mark of 0.6500 area. Which coincides to the 23.6 percent Fibo-regression point of 0.6500. A move over that point may cause the price pair to challenge the 14 D-EMA of 0.6535 mark. Then the key resistance around 0.6550 area.
5- Hourly Technical Indicators & Signals
| Name | Value | Action |
| RSI(14) | 36.985 | Sell |
| STOCH(9,6) | 15.504 | Oversold*Caution |
| STOCHRSI(14) | 59.945 | Buy |
| MACD(12,26) | -0.002 | Sell |
| ADX(14) | 30.383 | Neutral |
| Williams %R | -71.282 | Sell* |
| Name | Value | Action |
| CCI(14) | -56.8950 | Sell |
| ATR(14) | 0.0022 | Less Volatility |
| Highs/Lows(14) | -0.0007 | Sell |
| Ultimate Oscillator | 38.483 | Sell*Caution(Oversold) |
| ROC | -0.476 | Sell* |
| Bull/Bear Power(13) | -0.0035 | Sell* |
