BTC Fear & Greed Index remains unchanged. Inflation in focus. On Saturday, the crypto session was bullish. However, regulatory risk should persist to challenge investors’ willingness to invest before Tuesday’s US CPI Report.
BTC Present scenario
BTC increased by 1.04% on Friday to close the day at $21,865. Fed Fear and crypto regulatory uncertainty kept Bitcoin below $22,000. Despite increasing from 49 to 50 out of 100, the Fear & Greed Index stayed in the Neutral range.
BTC increased by 1.04% on Saturday. BTC finished the day at $21,865. Reversing a loss of 0.73% on Saturday. BTC finished the day under $22,000 for the third straight session.
Bitcoin dropped to an early low of $21,614 as the day got off to a rocky start. BTC climbed to a final-hour top of $21,907. While avoiding the first Major Support Level (S1) at $21,448. Before falling off to conclude the session around $21,865. BTC briefly crossed the Initial Important Resistance Mark (R1) around $21,885.
BTC Regulatory Risk and Fed Fear Held Back Bitcoin
There were no outside market factors acting as a guide on Saturday. In front of another crucial week for the international financial markets, dip buyers were left to provide support due to a lack of market forces.
After the release of the January US Employment Report. Aggressive Fed talk has reignited Fed Fear, with markets speculating on the possibility of interest rates climbing beyond 5%., Moreover, staying there for a long time.
The US CPI Report this week may confirm the more pessimistic forecast, which would be bad for the markets. After hearing that Kraken had reached a settlement with the SEC and would no longer provide US crypto staking services, the gloomy sentiment was exacerbated by regulatory risk.
Additional exchanges will probably be subject to the same scrutiny now that the SEC is enforcing its regulations. A US prohibition on cryptocurrency holding services would put trader fortitude to hard test. That would change the market’s character.
Traders will be kept busy by the heightened regulatory uncertainties. The continuing Silvergate Bank and FTX probe, plus the Genesis bankruptcy proceedings.
Investors should also take the SEC v. Ripple case into account. A win for Ripple could encourage a change in attitude and might give the CFTC additional authority to regulate the market for digital assets.
The Coming Day
Traders must keep an eye on the cryptocurrency news lines for updates on FTX, Genesis, and Silvergate Bank. However, the announcement that more cryptocurrency exchanges may be investigated by the SEC may make sub-$20,000 a possibility.
The NASDAQ mini will probably have an impact in the last hour as traders start to think about Tuesday’s US CPI Report. Which might frighten them.
A pick-up in inflation stress would justify a more assertive interest rate path to bring inflation to goal after the hot US Jobs Report and aggressive Fed discussion.
NASDAQ – BTCUSD 120223 daily graph. Source: TradingView
Bitcoin is below $22,000 and the Fear & Greed Index is still neutral. The BTC Fear & Greed Index increased from 49/100 to 50/100 today. Though, it still remained in the Neutral range. T
he Index remained in the Neutral range as SEC regulatory activities and Fed Fear continued to affect market sentiment regarding cryptocurrencies.
Today, traders will be waiting and watching. The US CPI Report on Tuesday may determine the direction of the Fed’s interest rates in the near future.
Regulatory news should probably have a more significant influence on Bitcoin and the larger crypto market. Despite the fact that Fed Fear continues to be a drag. The worst-case outcome. Which is still a possibility, could be a US ban on cryptocurrency staking.
To promote a BTC push at $23,000 after moving back into the Neutrality zone, the Index must stay out of the Fear zone. However, a restoration of the Index to the Fear level would signal a short-term reversion of the bullish trend.
Bitcoin Price Action
The BTC was trading at $21,850 down 0.07%. Bitcoin rose to an early high of $21,889 before sliding to a bottom of $21,847 in a limited range opening to the day.
Technical Significance
To reach the First Significant Resistance Point (R1) at $21,977, BTC must prevent a decline past the pivot mark at $21,795.
A breach through the $21,907 high from last Saturday would denote a breakouts session. To promote a sustained rally, the crypto news wires must be crypto-friendly.
The Bitcoin would probably test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $22,088. In the case of a prolonged surge. At $22,381. The 3rd Major Resistance Degree (R3) is located. In the event of a decline below the pivot, the First Fundamental Support Line (S1) at $21,684 should come to play.
BTC should stay above $21,500, though, absent further risk-off-driven sell off in cryptocurrencies. This drop should be capped by the Second Significant Support Level (S2) at $21,502. At $21,209. The next significant support level (S3) is the lowest.
It was a negative signal when seen in relation to the EMAs and the 4-hour candlestick chart (under). Over the 200-day EMA ($21,705), BTC was trading.
The 50-day EMA retreated from the 100-day EMA after a bearish cross on Saturday. While the 100-day EMA narrowed to the 200-day EMA, sending bearish signs. The bulls would have a run at R1 ($21,977) and $22,000 if they were able to hold over the 200-day EMA (21,705). S2 ($21,502) should come in view.
S2 ($21,502) should come in view. The 50-day EMA ($23,250) would require to be crossed to imply a bull rise.
Conclusion
Despite yet another week of highly significant economic news, bitcoin prices declined. Even though systemic risks were still high. Volatility remained low, which is relatively unexpected considering the current state of the economy.
During their respective monetary policy meetings, the Federal Reserve, Bank of England (BoE), and European Central Bank (ECB) all increased interest rates.
The BTCUSD pair increased slightly before reaching a high of $24,258. The announcement itself had no influence on the instant response because market participants had already priced in the anticipated rate increases. That were in line with forecasts.
