Pound Sterling looking to continue its five-day winning streak versus the US Dollar.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) held gains at the round-level resistance of 1.3100 in Thursday’s London session. The GBPUSD pair projected to trade sideways following a five-day winning streak. With investors looking for the August S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for the United Kingdom (UK) and the United States (US). Which will be released at 08:30 GMT and 13:45 GMT, respectively.
The overall outlook of the Cable continues bullish as the US Dollar trades lower, with growing optimism that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would begin lowering interest rates following its September meeting. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US dollar against six major currencies, is hovering around 101.00, its lowest level this year.
The major event this week will be Powell and Bailey’s remarks in Jackson Hole.
Investors’ confidence in the Fed’s return to policy normalization has grown after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes for the July 30-31 meeting revealed that some policymakers had previously supported decreasing borrowing rates. Nonetheless, the “vast majority” of officials agreed that “if the data continued to come in about as expected, it would likely be appropriate to ease policy at the next meeting,” according to the minutes.
Meanwhile, a A negative revision in Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) in the year to March 2024 fueled fears of a future recession, prompting traders to boost their bets on a 50-basis-point (bps) interest-rate cut in September. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announced that the total number of employees hired over the time was 818K lower than previously projected, raising expectations of a significant interest rate decrease.
Investors are now shifting their focus to the Jackson Hole (JH) Symposium, which begins at 14:00 GMT and runs until August 24. The highlight will be Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s address on Friday. Investors will be looking for new clues regarding the probable amount of interest rate decreases in September.
Daily Market movers: Pound Sterling will guided by flash UK S&P Global/CIPS PMI statistics.
The Pound Sterling has performed mixed against its key peers. As investors have remained cautious ahead of the preliminary UK S&P Global/CIPS data for August. The flash PMI data will provide insight into the present state of the UK economy. Economists expect the Composite PMI to rise moderately to 52.9 from 52.8 a month ago, driven by a faster improvement in service sector activity. Meanwhile, manufacturing activity is expected to expand steadily.
The flash PMI survey could possibly reveal a major boost in employer morale and strong labor demand as a result of the Bank of England’s (BoE) interest rate drop in August. This marked the first decrease in borrowing costs since December 2021, when It began tightening monetary policy to counteract strong inflationary pressures fueled by pandemic-related stimulus.
This week’s biggest trigger for the Pound Sterling will be BoE Governor Andrew Bailey’s address at the JH Symposium on Friday. Andrew Bailey may provide insight into whether the BoE will drop interest rates again in September. Investors would also seek for signs about wage growth and service inflation.
According to a Reuters poll. The BoE predicted to drop interest rates once again in November, as inflation expected to remain over the bank’s objective of 2%. Rabobank analysts wrote in a note: “We’re witnessing headline inflation inching towards 2.75%-3.00% by year-end.”