GBPUSD Pound bullish momentum Is still present, but slowing. Forex traders watch for indications of stress in the US banking industry.
GBPUSD on bullish BoE Raise Rates by 25bps, Anticipating Cooling Inflation
Both monthly and yearly, UK retail revenues in Feb exceeded forecasts. Retail sales volumes rose by 1.2% in Feb. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) states, tracking a rise of 0.9% in Jan, (that was positively updated from 0.5%).
UK Retail Sales Table
| Main retail figures, volume, and value sales Seasonally adjusted, percentage change, Great Britain, January 2023 |
|||||
| Most Recent month on a year earlier |
Most recent 3 months on a year earlier |
Most Recent month on previous month |
Most recent 3 months on previous 3 months |
January 2023 compared with February 2020 |
|
| Value (amount spent) |
4.1 | 3.9 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 14.0 |
| Volume (quantity bought) |
-5.1 | -5.7 | 0.5 | -0.9 | -1.4 |
| Value (excluding automotive fuel) |
3.7 | 3.4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 13.4 |
| Volume (excluding automotive fuel) |
-5.3 | -5.9 | 0.4 | -1.0 | -0.8 |
Source: Source: Office for National Statistics – Monthly Business Survey, Retail Sales Inquiry
The ONS reports that food store sales increased by 0.9% over the month. Non-food store sales increased by 2.4$ over the same period. With a few reports of reduced spending on dining and takeout due to cost-of-living constraints.
The most recent UK flash PMIs will be made public soon, and this series is predicted to be unchanged to slightly higher than the prior month.
GPBUSD supported by Fed’s slowing stance
The US dollar’s decline is the primary factor supporting the upward movement of GBPUSD. The sterling is neutral in and of itself, but the US dollar has been declining in recent weeks. Due to predictions Fed will stop raising interest rates.
Technical Perspective
Over the past two weeks, the GBPUSD exchange rate has risen by about 450 pip. With any pullbacks being viewed as purchasing opportunities. On Wed and Thursday, the duo breached above 1.2300, but they were unable to close and open above it.
Blocking the GBP/USD from moving higher. A move above the previous day’s multi-week top at 1.2344 is unlikely. Because today’s session has been quiet thus far. The first area of support is near the 1.2200/1.2210 level. The recent turmoil in US finance and its potential for spread is now taken into consideration by the Fed. Which could keep Jerome Powell from stiffening monetary policy anymore.
RECORD FROM RETAIL TRADERS IS MIXED
Retail trader statistics show that, with a short-to-long ratio of 1.29 to 1, 43.70 percent of traders are net long. The number of traders who are net-long is up 5.07% from yesterday, and down 10.89% from the week prior. While the number of traders who are net short is up 0.52% from Thursday and up 17.16% from the previous week.
