US dollar is set for a marginally positive weekly close, extending month-long stabilization.
The US dollar (USD) is unchanged in the European trading session as markets prepare for the week’s last economic data releases. Looking back on this week, it’s evident that markets are still unsure what to do next.
Markets are bracing for six Fed speakers and the release of the Monetary Policy Report.
The US Federal Reserve says it remains data dependent, and recent data may create a case for another rate hike in order to control the second-round consequences of inflation. Meanwhile, Fed speakers are pushing back on this narrative, with statements this week focusing on when and how many interest rate reduction the Fed will make.
On the economic front, certain recent data may potentially cause a shift in the USD. On Friday, S&P Global and the Institute for Supply Management will release their February Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), as well as the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations data. Finally, six Fed speakers will talk, and the Monetary Policy Report will be released, providing additional market direction.
Daily Market movers: Divergence is taking place.The US Dollar Index oscillates about 104.00, failing to break away in either direction.
This Friday is slated to start around 14:45 GMT, with the final reading of the S&P Global Manufacturing. PMI for February. The reading is expected to remain constant at 51.5.
At 15:00 GMT, both the University of Michigan and the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will disclose their data.
The latest February report from the University of Michigan predicts that consumer sentiment will continue at 79.6.
The preliminary estimate of inflation was 2.9%. There is currently no forecast for the final reading.
The ISM PMI data release will consist of the following elements:
The headline Manufacturing PMI is expected to increase from 49.1 to 49.5.
The Manufacturing Employment subcomponent was previously at 47.1. There is no prediction available.
The New Orders Index stood at 52.5, with no forecast given.
The Prices Paid Index is predicted to increase from 52.9 to 53.0. .
The Federal Reserve has its own schedule this Friday.
At 15:15 GMT, Fed Board of Governors member Christopher Waller and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan will participate in a panel discussion.
Raphael Bostic, the head of the Atlanta Fed, is scheduled to talk at 17:15 GMT.
At 18:30 GMT, Mary Daly, President of the San Francisco Fed, and Jeffrey Schmid, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, will hold a panel discussion.
Adriana Kugler, a Fed Board of Governors member, will talk at approximately 20:30 GMT.
Fed will release its Monetary Policy Report at 16:00 GMT.
The Fed will release its Monetary Policy Report at 16:00 GMT, which will be given to Congress before to next week’s semi-annual session.
Equities are up across the board, from Asia to US futures. During Asian Nasdaq futures have already reached an all-time high during this trading session.
According to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, there is a 97% chance of a Fed pause at the March 20 meeting, with 3% chance of a rate drop.
The benchmark 10-year US Treasury Note trades around 4.27%, largely steady over the last three days.