Gold for the fourth day in a row a combination of factors puts pressure.
On Wednesday, the gold price (XAUUSD) was under some selling pressure for the fourth day in a row, but it remained above the weekly low due to a lack of bearish conviction. Following recent sharp losses, hints of stabilization in global equities markets threaten the safe-haven gold. Aside from that, a slight US Dollar (USD) rise expected to put some pressure on the commodity.
Signs of stability in the equities markets undercut the metal, despite minor USD strength.
That said, Expectations for more interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed), along with persisting concerns about a US recession, could limit any major advances for the US dollar. Furthermore, fears about a Chinese economic slowdown, as well as the danger of escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, should continue to boost the gold market and limit any losses.
Daily Market Movers: Gold prices may continue to derive support from dovish Fed views and geopolitical threats.
A global sell-off in financial markets, prompted by fears of the US entering a recession, appears to have abated on Wednesday, putting some pressure on the safe-haven gold price.
US Treasury bond yields rise on the overnight increase, which was their largest since early June – and offer support to the US Dollar, which is expected to further undermine the non-yielding yellow metal.
According to government figures released on Tuesday, the US trade deficit decreased by 2.5% to $73.1 billion in June from $75.0 billion in May, thanks to a 1.5% increase in aircraft exports and US-produced oil and gas.
Bets for a 50-bps Fed rate drop in September and geopolitical uncertainties should provide some assistance.
The markets are pricing in a 100% possibility that the Federal Reserve will begin decreasing borrowing prices at its next policy meeting in September, as well as a nearly 70% chance of a 50-basis-point rate decrease.
This, in turn, should keep a lid on US bond yields and the USD, which, coupled with geopolitical risks arising from the current hostilities in the Middle East could act as a tailwind for the XAUUSD pair.
On Tuesday, the Lebanese group Hezbollah launched a series of drone and missile assaults on Israel in response for Israel’s claimed execution of a prominent Hezbollah commander and Hamas leader last week.
In the absence of any important macro data from the US, the market may likely settle into a normal consolidation pattern, waiting for the next major fundamental catalyst before putting new directional bets.