The EURUSD retraced slightly from its retest of early February highs on Tuesday and Wednesday of last week, but still bullish. After reaching a high near the 1.0975 level on Tuesday, the EURUSD will open tomorrow’s trading near the 1.0900 level.
Friday’s US employment numbers were relatively in line with forecasts despite poor forex trading conditions due to the holiday. Little trading is expected to continue at the start of the week. But when more volume flows into forex on Tuesday, the EURUSD could see some volatility.
Day traders are still hopeful about the EURUSD because of the pair’s bullish technical charts. This shows the currency pair making a fairly dramatic upward advance since early February. During the current upswing, reversals have been smaller, but the general behavioral trend still favors betting on a firmer EURUSD. There are still storm clouds in the sky, and potentially unsettling outcomes could emerge. But day traders may find betting on more EURUSD rises lucrative.
US Inflation Data Impact.
The US Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index will be released in the middle of the week. The CPI and PPI inflation numbers will be released Wednesday and Thursday. If the EURUSD rate can keep looking for higher values, then trading desks are being influenced by analysts’ opinions at financial institutions. Many financial firms have priced in a less aggressive US central bank to evolve over the medium term, but the Federal Reserve can still hike interest rates in early May by 0.25%.
The EUR/USD turned sharply down at the end of the week, but the selling was quite calm. Even though the Non-Farm Employment data were stronger than expected, the Euro to Dollar exchange rate barely moved. The market will have another day to react to data from last week, but many eyes will be on the US inflation report due on Wednesday and Thursday.
The United States will also release reports on retail sales and consumer confidence on Friday. These figures will reveal the state of consumer spending in the US economy. Weaker US retail data may spur further demand for the euro against the dollar.
EURO failed to hold over 1.09000 but remains significant.
Sellers may see opportunities as the EURUSD struggles to hold above the 1.09000 mark. The currency pair climbed above the ratio early last week, but there was a sharp decline later. The question is whether the EURUSD drop occurred because banks were cautious buyers leading up to the Good Friday and Easter holidays. Speculators may wait until Tuesday morning to make any moves in the EURUSD to observe the market’s opening tomorrow.
EURUSD Weekly Forecast:
Since the end of September 2022, the outcomes of trading the EURUSD with a technical strategy that extends beyond daily or weekly time frames have shown a bullish trend. Daily fluctuations in the value of the EURUSD are driven by behavioral sentiment derived from economic data and market conditions; thus, day traders should always be ready for the currency pair to reverse lower.
If the support levels around 1.0840 and 1.0820 hold this week, we could see further buying pressure added to the market. A decline below 1.0820 is possible; however, it requires unexpectedly significant US inflation to get going.
The EURUSD could rise further if the CPI and PPI readings for March were worse than expected. If behavioral attitude stays bullish, a retest of last week’s highs could swiftly escalate into targeted trading near the 1.1000 mark.
