EURUSD is trading at YTD minimums under 1.0450. The US dollar is being supported by hardline Fed predictions with aversion to risk.
EURUSD Fundamental Framework
Early Tuesday, ECB economist in chief Philip said further work is needed since the ECB remains a long way from meeting its inflation objective. In the meantime, the ECB Council of Governors member Gediminas imkus stated that monetary policy rates must remain tight in order to keep inflation under control. These observations aided the EURUSD’s re-entry into the European day.
The US economic agenda will contain JOLTS Job Openings figures for Aug in the subsequent phase of the day. Investors anticipate that the number of entries will remain stable at roughly 8.8 million. A number under 8.5 million. This might indicate slack job conditions can hurt the U.S. dollar.
Key Points & Considerations
The Euro gives in to more US Dollar dominance.
European stocks are starting the day on the defensively.
The EURUSD falls to fresh 2023 minimums at 1.0460.
The DXY rises to fresh highs above 107.00.
Later in the event, JOLTS job vacancies will headline the main role.
Current Trading Price: 1.04807
EURUSD Technical Analysis
EURUSD faces immediate hurdles at 1.0500 (the bottom edge of the falling regressive line). Should the duo manage to settle down over that level, it can retrace upward towards 1.0540 (20-period SMA, the midpoint in the declining range). Then 1.0570-1.0580 (the top range of the falling pathway, 50-day Simple Moving Average
To the negative side, it appears that stationary support established at 1.0470 prior to 1.0420 (static area since Nov of 2022). As well as 1.0400 (psychological threshold, stationary line).
The EURUSD finished in the red early Monday but proceeded to fall into Asian trading sessions. Yet, following reaching its lowest level since 2023 at 1.0460 mark. The duo mounted a rally around 1.0500 level during the morning European period.
After a tranquil start to this week, the standard the ten-year US Treasury note yield gathered pace. That reached a several-year peak near 4.7 percent on Monday. As a result, the United States dollar rise gained traction, forcing the EURUSD to remain under pressure. The positive ISM Manufacturing PMI data also boosted the US dollar and pressured on the duo.
More bearish pressure is possible while the EURUSD continues under the 200-day SMA.
The findings show that the market as a whole is more convinced that values under 1.03 are probable. Since investors having options that target 1.03 will just begin to benefit after the EUR to USD exchange rate falls beneath this threshold.
Open Interest PositioningNet Short
DAILY CHANGE IN
LONGS 18%
SHORTS -18%
OI6%
WEEKLY CHANGE IN
LONGS 3%
SHORTS -17%
OI-3%
Source” CME Group
When market posture is broken down, hedge funds have liquidated 24.8k long bets while establishing an extra 5.5k ne-short-selling positions in the last month. Leaving investors overall short with the euro’s value by 23.3k contracts for futures.
