Crude oil prices drop as markets evaluate banks and Fed. Oil prices remain low as markets assess financial threats.
Crude oil in stress
After reaching lows last seen in late 2021, crude oil is still down today. As markets assess attempts to boost trust in the banking industry. While the Brent contract is just over US$ 73 barrel, the WTI futures contract is close to US$ 67 bbl.
Crude oil impacted by banking turmoil
The Credit Suisse-UBS transaction was planned by the Swiss National Bank. At the same time that US officials are considering whether to guarantee all bank deposits. Presently, up to US$250,000 in deposits are covered by the Federal Deposit Insurance Commission.
The FOMC meeting on Wed swings into sharp focus. Even though worries about small and regional banks’ balance sheet fragility continue.
While the pricing isn’t completely complicit with a probability of about 70% being factored in. Markets are leaning toward a 25 basis point increase. Wall Street ended its cash session in the black in anticipation of some relief from a less aggressive Fed. And futures are currently pointing to a possible flat start to their trading day.
The technical analysis of WTI crude oil
Prior to SVB Financial’s demise, WTI had deviated from all daily simple moving averages. (SMA). The price must be below the near-term SMA, the latter must be below the medium-term SMA. And the medium-term SMA must be under less than the long-term SMA in order for a bearish triple-moving average. The pattern to occur. Additionally, all SMAs need to have a negative curve.
The conditions for a TMA were fulfilled in the days after the SVB crash. If these circumstances continue, the bearish sentiment may persist. This momentum may be coming to a stop with a break above any SMA.
The previous lows of 64.36, 62.43, 61.74, and 61.56 may provide support. On the upside, potential support could be found at the most recent high of 69.83. Which is just before the critical point of the 70.08 mark
Technical indicators and synopsis (daily)
Summary: SELL
Moving Averages: Buy (1) Sell (11)
Technical Indicators: Buy (0) Sell (9)
Pivot Points
| Name | S3 | S2 | S1 | Pivot Points | R1 | R2 | R3 |
| Classic | 61.88 | 63.13 | 65.38 | 66.63 | 68.88 | 70.13 | 72.38 |
| Fibonacci | 63.13 | 64.47 | 65.29 | 66.63 | 67.97 | 68.79 | 70.13 |
| Camarilla | 66.68 | 67.00 | 67.32 | 66.63 | 67.96 | 68.28 | 68.60 |
| Woodie’s | 62.38 | 63.38 | 65.88 | 66.88 | 69.38 | 70.38 | 72.88 |
| DeMark’s | – | – | 66.01 | 66.94 | 69.51 | – | – |
Technical Indicators
| Name | Value | Action |
| RSI(14) | 34.498 | Sell |
| STOCH(9,6) | 22.143 | Sell |
| STOCHRSI(14) | 19.064 | Oversold |
| MACD(12,26) | -2.850 | Sell |
| ADX(14) | 45.394 | Sell |
| Williams %R | -76.208 | Sell |
| CCI(14) | -81.2456 | Sell |
| ATR(14) | 3.3807 | High Volatility |
| Highs/Lows(14) | -2.7507 | Sell |
| Ultimate Oscillator | 49.128 | Neutral |
| ROC | -12.590 | Sell |
| Bull/Bear Power(13) | -6.2380 | Sell |
| Buy: 0
Sell: 9 Neutral: 1 Summary: SELL |
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