Oct 30, 2022
VOT Research Desk
VOT Research Desk
Market Insights, Considerations & Analytics
The US Dollar’s decline last week caused the Australian Dollar to strengthen.
The most recent CPI re-accelerated and gave the RBA a problem.
Fundamental Overview
News item In contrast to the forecasted 7.0%, CPI was 7.3% year over year as of the third quarter’s end. Instead of the predicted 5.5%, the clipped mean value was 6.1% for the same time period.
The RBA has stated that they anticipate this year’s inflation to peak at 8% before declining in 2023. Re-acceleration, as seen in the quarterly breakout, is a challenge for this scenario.
This Tuesday’s Melbourne will be operate and decide, but the RBA rate decision will be the main event for Australian financial markets. A crucial question still remains regarding their resolve to slowing the rate of inflation in order to prevent making the same policy mistake as other central banks, who are currently facing significant increases in cash rates.
Technical Perspective
The trading week for the currency pair Australian Dollar to US Dollar ends close to 0.6418. Within the confines of the fall and the lowering channel, the duo keeps moving. A bearish trend is indicated by moving averages.
Prices have dropped from the region between the signal lines, indicating price pressure on the asset and a probable extension of the currency pair’s value decline. Right now, we should anticipate an effort to form a positive corrective and test the resistance region close to the price level of 0.6565. Following a reversal, the AUD/USD exchange rate fell again, possibly with a target below 0.5685.
A recovery from the top border of the sinking channel will be another Forex indicator supporting the pair’s decline. A recovery from the relative strength index’s downturn line will serve as the second signal (RSI). There will be a significant increase and a breach of the level of 0.6895 if the option to decline the AUD/USD currency pair in the current trading week of October 31–November 4, 2022 is cancelled.
With a probable objective at the level of 0.7245, this will signal the breach of resistance and a continuation of the Australian Dollar’s ascent on the Forex market. A collapse of the support region and the closure of prices underneath the level of 0.6065, which will signal a collapse of the lower portion of the bearish channel, will serve as confirmation of the progression of the slide.
Weekly Technical Indicators
|
Name |
Value |
Action |
|
RSI(14) |
36.764 |
Sell |
|
STOCH(9,6) |
23.250 |
Sell |
|
STOCHRSI(14) |
40.467 |
Sell |
|
MACD(12,26) |
-0.020 |
Sell |
|
ADX(14) |
39.732 |
Sell |
|
Williams %R |
-74.897 |
Sell |
|
Name |
Value |
Action |
|
CCI(14) |
-89.7211 |
Sell |
|
ATR(14) |
0.0207 |
High Volatility |
|
Highs/Lows(14) |
-0.0184 |
Sell |
|
Ultimate Oscillator |
33.770 |
Sell |
|
ROC |
-7.393 |
Sell |
|
Bull/Bear Power(13) |
-0.0365 |
Sell |
|
Buy:0 |
Sell:11 |
Neutral:0 |
Indicators Summary: Sell |
Weekly Simple Moving Averages – AUD/USD
|
Name |
MA5 |
MA10 |
MA20 |
MA50 |
MA100 |
MA200 |
|
AUD/USD |
0.6351 |
0.6554 |
0.6735 |
0.7014 |
0.7285 |
0.7094 |
Weekly Pivots
|
Name |
S3 |
S2 |
S1 |
Pivot Points |
R1 |
R2 |
R3 |
|
AUD/USD |
0.6045 |
0.6118 |
0.6248 |
0.6321 |
0.6451 |
0.6524 |
0.6653 |
