AUDUSD duo Exchange Rate Outlook: Australian The rate of inflation Data Key to Australian central bank’s Rates Perspective
Fundamental Highlights
This Friday, April 26th, the price of produce across Australia are going to receive the spotlight.
After the CPI figures, elevated prices for producers might prolong an RBA rate of interest drop.
Following in the day, the US PCE data , as well as the Michigan consumer sentiment figures, will be discussed
Australia’s Production Pricing along the Bank’s Rate Course
Analysts expect prices for producers will rise 2.6 percent YoY in the first quarter 2024, comparing to a 4.1 percent growth in fourth quarter of 2023. Furthermore, experts predict that prices for producers will grow by 0.6 percent in quarter one. Following an uptick of 0.9% in fourth quarter.
Higher-than-expected prices for producers may fuel conjecture of an RBA rates rise. Under a high-demand market, manufacturers raise the cost of goods, carrying on the expense to customers.
The Aussie CPI figures in the first quarter exceeded expectations, impacting attitude for the bank’s rate trajectory. The yearly rate of inflation fell from 4.1 percent to 3.6 percent in quarter one 2024.
An elevated-for-long RBA policy course may increase the cost of borrowing and diminish disposable income. Disposable earnings declines could decrease spending by consumers therefore weaken driven by demand inflationary trend.
US PCE Forecast
Afterwards in the day ahead the crucial PCE Assessment will be discussed.
Analysts predict that personal revenue and expenditure will rise by 0.5 percent & 0.6 percent in the month of March accordingly. In Feb, personal earnings and expenditures increased by 0.3 percent and 0.8 percent, respectively. Furthermore, they estimate the overall PCE Index of Prices to rise 2.6 percent year on year by year, following a 2.8 percent gain in Feb.
AUDUSD Technical Analysis
The AUDUSD traded under the 50 & 200 D- Exponential moving averages, showing negative price signs. A breakaway from the 50 D- moving average for the Australian dollar would suggest an excursion towards the 200 D- EMA. With the key resistance mark of $0.65760. If the duo breaks past the $0.65760 barrier threshold, the market’s bulls will have an opportunity to rally to the $0.66 mark.
Australian prices for producers, as well as the US PCE data, should be considered.
In contrast, if the AUDUSD falls below $0.64501, the sellers will attack the $0.64581 supporting area. If the price falls beneath $0.64581 mark, the $0.62712 supporting mark will come into action. With a 14-time frame Each day RSI value at 52.07, the AUDUSD might rebound towards the $0.66 level prior to being overvalued.
The immediate future Outlook
The US PCE Data will determine the short-term AUDUSD movement. Higher-than-anticipated results may lower the prospect of a Sept US Fed rates drop. Nevertheless, Aussie prices for producers will have an impact on market confidence over the central bank’s policy path. In the month of March the Reserve Bank of Australia tempered talk of raising interest rates.
Technical Indicators & Signals
| Name | Value | Action |
| RSI(14) | 67.847 | Buy |
| STOCH(9,6) | 51.105 | Neutral |
| STOCHRSI(14) | 100.000 | Overbought*Caution |
| MACD(12,26) | 0.001 | Buy* Near-Term |
| ADX(14) | 42.005 | Buy |
| Williams %R | -9.091 | Overbought*Caution |
| CCI(14) | 228.5490 | Overbought |
| ATR(14) | 0.0009 | Less Volatility |
| Highs/Lows(14) | 0.0015 | Buy |
| Ultimate Oscillator | 62.448 | Buy*Caution (Overbought) |
| ROC | 0.538 | Buy* |
| Bull/Bear Power(13) | 0.0033 | Buy-Near-Term |
Daily – Moving Averages
| Period | Simple | Exponential |
| MA5 | 0.6529 Buy |
0.6530 Buy |
| MA10 | 0.6525 Buy* Short- term |
0.6526 Buy* |
| MA20 | 0.6519 Buy- Shor-term |
0.6520 Buy (short-term |
| MA50 | 0.6510 Buy signal |
0.6508 Buy |
| MA100 | 0.6485 Buy* Short-Term |
0.6490 Buy |
| MA200 | 0.6453 Buy |
0.6485 Buy* |
