AUDUSD bulls hold upper hand near 0.6430-35, a three-week high.
On Thursday, the AUDUSD pair builds on the previous day’s big rise. And finds some follow-through positive traction for the second day in a row.
The post-FOMC USD selling bias appears to be a key driver of the current uptrend.
The impetus is spurred by post-FOMC US Dollar (USD) depreciation. Which propels spot prices to 0.6435, a three-week high, during the Asian session.
Despite the fact that the Federal Reserve (Fed) has left the door open for more rate hikes. Following the unexpected resilience of the US economy, investors appear persuaded. That the US central bank is nearing the conclusion of its rate-hiking cycle. This is bolstered by the continuous decrease in US Treasury bond yields. Which is weighing on the US Dollar (USD) and supporting the AUDUSD pair.
Aside from that, a generally bullish tone in the equities markets appears to be another factor hurting the safe-haven Greenback. And benefiting the riskier Australian Dollar (AUD). Meanwhile, bullish traders were unconcerned by relatively underwhelming Australian macro data. Which revealed that the trade surplus fell drastically from A$9.64 billion to A$6.786 billion in September, falling short of forecasts.
AUDUSD Technical Outlook
Technically, the AUDUSD pair has finally found support. For the first time since July, acceptance has risen over the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). This, together with a break over the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the July-October fall. Might serve as a new catalyst for optimistic traders. Furthermore, oscillators on the daily chart have just begun to move into positive territory. Confirming the favorable setup.
This, in turn, means that the AUDUSD pair’s path of least resistance is to the upside. Bolstering prospects for additional appreciation. Some follow-through purchasing beyond the October monthly swing high, around the 0.6445 level, will reaffirm the bullish bias and allow spot prices to climb further towards the 0.6500-0.6510 confluence, which includes the 100-day SMA and the 38.2% Fibo. level.
on the other hand, The 50-day SMA resistance breakpoint – levels just below 0.6400 – now appears to be protecting the immediate downside. A convincing break below will expose the horizontal support at 0.6335-0.6325, below which the AUDUSD pair might fall lower towards the 0.6300 round-figure line. Bears may then attempt to challenge the YTD trough, which was reached on October 26 in the 0.6270 region.
