RBA pressures will increase on job growth report – expected to have added 48.5K new jobs in Australia
RBA pressures will increase on the job growth report. The monthly Australian employment report will be made public on March 16. The country is predicted to have added 48.5K new roles in February after losing 11.5K jobs in January. This month, market participants anticipate a decrease in the unemployment rate from 3.7% to 3.6% and a minor increase in the participation rate from 66.5% to 66.6%.
| Jan-2023 | Feb-2023 | Monthly change | Monthly change (%) | Yearly change | Yearly change (%) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Employed people | 13,761,700 | 13,826,200 | 64,600 | 0.5% | 401,800 | 3.0% |
| Unemployed people | 524,000 | 507,500 | -16,500 | -3.2% | -51,600 | -9.2% |
| Unemployment rate | 3.7% | 3.5% | -0.1 pts | na | -0.5 pts | na |
| Underemployment rate | 6.2% | 5.8% | -0.3 pts | na | -0.7 pts | na |
| Participation rate | 66.5% | 66.6% | 0.1 pts | na | 0.2 pts | na |
| Monthly hours worked in all jobs | 1,845 million | 1,917 million | 72 million | 3.9% | 93 million | 5.1% |
Australian Bureau of Statistics
Estimates of changes throughout this release are calculated using un-rounded level estimates and may be different from, but are more accurate than, movements obtained from the rounded level estimates.
Just before the release of the employment report statistics, the country will disclose March Consumer Inflation Expectations, by the Melbourne Institute, Which anticipates an increase to 5.4% from 5.1% in the preceding month.
It is significant to note that projections from the Australian Bureau of Statistics indicate that the Australian Wage Price Index climbed 0.8% in the fourth quarter of 2022. During the year, sector growth grew to 3.6%. The best rate recorded for the sector since the third quarter of 2012. According to the statistics, lowering inflation will take some time.
RBA is growing more circumspect
New employment reports and inflation numbers were made public a week after the RBA delivered its most recent monetary policy decision. The central bank increased the official cash rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 3.6% for the ninth consecutive occasion.
Governor Philip Lowe and company were cautious after learning from the accompanying statement that policymakers had removed the reference to the necessity of numerous rises in the coming months.
According to Lowe, the board believes that additional monetary policy tightening will be necessary to ensure that inflation returns to the target level as this high inflation episode is only temporary.
Markets have gone into a violent tailspin due to fears of a Global Banking Crisis.
A banking crisis arrived in the center like cold water. According to news reports published on Wednesday, Credit Suisse had found “serious problems” in its financial reporting processes for the years 2022 and 2021.
At first, only a few tiny regional American banks had been impacted. The funding issue is directly tied to the aggressive tightening of monetary policy by central banks. Resulting in a decline in the price of government bonds and an increase in borrowing costs. Risk-off before Aussie employment statistics dominate financial boards.
AUDUSD Technical outlook on the employment report
The AUDUSD pair is currently trading a few pips above the 0.6600 level and is down considerably on the day as a result of the risk-averse atmosphere. Despite the fact that the mood is generally bearish throughout the sessions. A good employment report could help the pair gain some ground.
Yet, the comeback might only last a short while, and as the chaos subsided. The duo would start to fall again. The region around 0.6710, where the pair has crested multiple times this week, acts as a potent static resistance zone.
On the other hand, the decline and the past trend would undoubtedly get worse if the results don’t meet market expectations. A more significant support level for the pair is 0.6563.
The pair’s March monthly low and a level last reached in November 2022. The pair is presently trading at about 0.6610, with this level being a key support level.
