VOT Research Desk
Nov1,2022
Market Analytics and Considerations
What will occur?
The Federal Reserve will adjust the interest rate and release the Rate Statement, along with a note on the economic factors that drove the judgment, on November 2. Analysts predict that the Fed will increase rates by 75 basis points, bringing the rate to 4%.
Markets have already factored in this choice. Powell’s comments about the following choice at the meeting on December 14 will therefore be the center of focus. The markets currently predict a 75-bps increase in December with a 50.3% possibility. A rate increase of 50 points is related to another 44.4%. Consequently, the Powell Address has the potential to greatly influence the markets’ perception of the Fed’s future endeavors.
Powell’s comments notwithstanding, the NFP and the CPI reports on November 4 through November 10 will be the primary factors influencing dollar volatility. This time, researchers predict that 200K new employment would be created in October, down from 260K a month prior. These are fairly modest goals. Because of this, just like in the past, the real result can be better than expected and raise the US dollar index temporarily. However, it’s important to note that the USD has dropped two days after the announcement of the NFP three times in the past.
Until the CPI announcement on November 10, we anticipate the US dollar to remain under duress. Prior to the November 8, 2022, elections in the United States, where 35 of the 100 Senate seats and all 435 House of Representatives seats will be up for election, Jerome Powell could infuse new life into the stock and cryptocurrency markets. NFP findings may strengthen the dollar, but recent experience demonstrates that it typically declines afterward.
US500 Timeline
The US500 index is being pushed by buyers just above 3900 resistance. Following the breach, access to 4075 will be possible.
