Market Analytics and Considerations
Key Notes
The main US indices are ended the day and the week stronger. All of the major stock exchanges ended the day higher and over 2%. The major indices had gained between roughly 1percentage points and 1.5percent of total over the week.
The final figures indicate:
- S&P gained 86.98 points or 2.28%, or 700.53 points, to reach 3895.07 on the Dow Industrial Average’s rise to 33630.62.
- At 10569.30, the Nasdaq gained 264.06 points, or 2.56%.
- At 1792.799, the Russell 2000 or small caps increased by 39.60 or 2.26%.
The key indices’ gains for the trading week are as follows:
- Dow grew by 1.46%.
- S&P gained 1.45%.
- Nasdaq gained 0.98%.
- Russel 2000 increased by 1.79%.
A technical analysis of the S&P
The “Monday After” previous month dip downward and traded below to challenge the 200 hour MA on Tuesday, which was then climbing, following the NFP bounce on December 2 that saw the S&P close at 4071. Around 3818 MA was just that number. The price surged back up after stalling at that 200-hour MA.
The price then clipped upward on CPI day on Tuesday, December 13, following the stronger CPI, achieving a high of 4100.96 immediately after the opening. In the past, CPI has fared better than anticipated, 0.1percentage points vs. 0.3%. The stocks subsequently began to rotate downward as the downside’s impetus grew. The response to the better-than anticipated inflation news was dismal.
The value diped below the 200 hour MA on Thursday of that same week (Dec 15), and when selling garnered steam, it didn’t look back. On December 22, a dip of 3764.49 was observed. From the CPI top to the low on Dec 22, there was a -8.7percentage – point change.
Currently, after having advanced in time, the pricing is gradually returning to the well-established 200 hour MA. The 200 hour MA mark at 3910.32 was only missed by the steep price of yesterday at 3906, which was just above it.
That MA is only Eight points short from the 200-hour MA, which stopped the collapse on December 6th, the Tuesday after the release of the Dec employment report.
If the price can go above the 200 hour MA and begin to trade with a more bullish tilt for the very first time since December 14th—the day after the CPI—Monday could be an intriguing day for US stocks.
The marketplace would then concentrate on the forthcoming CPI, which will be reported on Thursday, Jan 12, if it manages to move over the 200 hour MA.
It is anticipated that the MoM for CPI will be 0.0percentage points (as opposed to 0.1percentage points previous month). The Core is predicted to be 0.3percentage points rather than 0.2%. It is anticipated that the overall CPI YoY will decrease to 6.5percentage points versus 7.1 percent.
The last six months would have equaled 0.0167percent of total a month, or 2.0percent of total for six months, if MoM CPI turns out to be 0.0%. The Fed’s target rate is that amount.
The core is, undoubtedly, still higher. Given the predicted 0.3%, the 6 average would be 0.038percentage points monthly or 4.6percent yearly. Nonetheless, other factors, including rent, will keep that greater than anticipated.
The argument is that if CPI reports for six months at 2.0%, it might be sufficient to push the stock market back into the 4100 threshold. The market will determine that in the upcoming week.
