Oct 04, 2022

VOT Research Desk

Analytical Viewpoint GBP/USD

Because of the Chancellor’s reversal on the high-rate tax cut, the pound to dollar increased by 1% yesterday and is continuing to rise today. Additionally, Kwasi Kwarteng declared that he would start implementing his strategy to reduce UK debt this month, starting on November 23.

Even while Liz Truss’ job appears less secure than it did a few weeks ago, these actions have at least temporarily allayed concerns about the UK economy’s prognosis.

No highly significant UK data is due today. Westminster will continue to be watched for further developments.

As hope builds that the Fed would cut back on rate hikes sooner rather than later, the US continues to deteriorate.

GBP/USD has recovered from its record low of 1.0350 and is now backing in its multi-month declining channel. The bullish RSI and a move over the 20 SMA give buyers hope for more gains.

The low of September 7 and the Brexit low, 1.14, serve as immediate resistance. To establish a higher high, a move must surpass 1.1725.

The 20 SMA at 1.13 provides immediate support, and a break of this level would lead to the 1.1160 trend line support and the round number at 1.10.

Oct 03, 2022

VOT Research Desk

Analytical Viewpoint GBP/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0881; (P) 1.1000; (R1) 1.1238;

Today’s increase in the GBP/USD pair following its recovery from 1.0351 is encouraging, as is the break of the 4-hour 55 EMA (now at 1.1037).

For the time being, the intraday bias is slightly in favor of the upward for a potential advance to the 61.8% retracement of 1.2292 to 1.0351 at 1.1551.

On the downside, a breach of the weak support level at 1.0760 will signal the end of the rally and trigger a retest of the low of 1.0351.

In the larger picture, the decline from the 2018 high of 1.4248 is restarting the long-term downward trend from 2.1161. (2007 high).

The next goal is a 100% projection from 1.7190 at 0.9532 to 2.1161 at 1.3503. As long as the 1.1759 support turned resistance remains, there is little chance of a medium-term comeback.

Sep 30, 2022

VOT Research Desk

Analytical Viewpoint GBP/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0881; (P) 1.1000; (R1) 1.1238;

The recovery of GBP/USD from 1.0351 is still ongoing, and the intraday tendency is still slightly upward. At 1.1551, a further increase might be expected to reach the 61.8% retracement of 1.2292 to 1.0351.

On the downside, a breach of the weak support level at 1.0760 will signal the end of the rally and trigger a retest of the low of 1.0351.

In the big picture, the decline from the 2018 high of 1.4248 is restarting the long-term downward trend from 2.1161. (2007 high).

The next goal is a 100% projection from 1.7190 at 0.9532 to 2.1161 at 1.3503. As long as the 1.1759 support turned resistance remains, there is no chance of a medium-term rebound.

Sep 23, 2022, 8:00PM+7:00

VOT Research Desk

Analytical Viewpoint GBP/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1190; (P) 1.1277; (R1) 1.1342;

The GBP/USD exchange rate has fallen as low as 1.1019, exceeding the 61.8% estimate of 1.3748 to 1.1759 from 1.2292 at 1.1063. No bottoming is yet visible. For the 100% projection at 1.0303, the intraday bias is still negative.

Above the modest resistance level of 1.1210, the intraday bias will change to neutral and bring consolidations before staging another slide.

In the grand scheme, the decline from 1.4248 (the 2018 high) is likely to resume the long-term downward trend from 2.1161 based on present momentum (2007 high).

When 1.1409 is broken consistently, a 61.8% projection from 1.4248 (2021 high) at 1.0675 (2014 high) to 1.1409 (2020 low) will be the goal.

For as long as the 1.2292 resistance holds, this will continue to be the preferred scenario.

Sep 16 2022, 12:40Pm+7:00

VOT Research Desk

Analytical Viewpoint GBP/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1434; (P) 1.1495; (R1) 1.1529;

First, the intraday bias in GBP/USD is still neutral but the short-term perspective is still pessimistic. On the downside, the broader downtrend will resume upon a clear break of 1.1404/9.

The following goal is the 61.8% estimate of 1.3748 to 1.1759 from 1.2292 at 1.1063. On the plus side, the retracement from 1.1404 to the 55 day EMA will continue above 1.1737 minor barriers (now at 1.1871).

In the grand scheme, the decline from 1.4248 (the 2018 high) is likely to resume the long-term downward trend from 2.1161 based on present momentum (2007 high). When 1.1409 is broken consistently, a 61.8% projection from 1.4248 (2021 high) at 1.0675 (2014 high) to 1.1409 (2020 low) will be the goal.

For as long as the 1.2292 resistance holds, this will continue to be the preferred scenario.