Oct 03, 2022

VOT Research Desk

Analytical Viewpoint USD/JPY

Following last week’s positive close (the seventh consecutive weekly gains) and September’s monthly advance of 4.1%, which marked the second consecutive robust monthly rally, the USDJPY is on the offensive early on Monday and has again tested through the 145 barrier.

After bulls reached a new 24-year high (145.90) but were sharply rejected there, near-term action moved to the upper side of the three-week range. The subsequent pullback found solid support just above psychological support of 140 (also Fibo 38.2% of the 130.39/145.90 rally), with dip being contained by rising daily Kijun-sen.

The dollar is projected to target the new peak once more, with a breach signalling a continuation of the bull market and exposing the 1998 top at 147.68. The dollar is still strong, underpinned by good fundamentals (hawkish Fed / safe-haven flows).

Although generally optimistic technical analyses on the daily chart, diminishing bullish momentum and overbought stochastic signal a possibility that the action may persist in an extended consolidation period before bulls restart.

To maintain the dip-buying strategy in operation, extended declines should encounter strong support at daily Tenkan-sen (143.12).

Res: 145.31; 145.90; 146.40; 147.21.
Sup: 144.15; 143.90; 143.12; 142.46.

Sep 30, 2022

VOT Research Desk

Analytical Viewpoint USD/JPY

Daily Pivots: (S1) 144.07; (P) 144.44; (R1) 144.80;

Due to the extension of the consolidation from 145.89, the intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral. As long as resistance turned support at 139.37 holds, further surge is anticipated.

Break of 145.89 will aim for long-term resistance at 147.68. However, a clear break below 139.37 will signal a short-term topping on the downside. Back towards the 130.38 support, there would be a deeper drop.

The overall uptrend from 75.56, which includes the uptrend from 101.18, is continuing in process (2011 low).

Upward movement should continue to 147.68 (1998 high).

For the time being, a break of support around 130.38 must occur before there is a medium-term topping signal. Otherwise, even in the event of a severe pullback, the prognosis will remain favorable.

Sep 29 2022, 02:20 GMT

VOT Research Desk

Analytical Viewpoint USD/JPY

Daily Pivots: (S1) 143.73; (P) 144.30; (R1) 144.69;   

The intraday bias is still neutral and USD/JPY is currently constrained in a consolidation from 145.89.

 As long as resistance turned support at 139.37 holds, further surge is anticipated. Break of 145.89 will aim for long-term resistance at 147.68.

However, a clear break below 139.37 will signal a short-term topping on the downside. Back towards the 130.38 support, there would be a deeper drop.

The overall uptrend from 75.56, which includes the uptrend from 101.18, is continuing in process (2011 low).

Upward movement should continue to 147.68 (1998 high). For the time being, a break of support around 130.38 must occur before there is a medium-term topping signal. Otherwise, even in the event of a severe pullback, the prognosis will remain favorable.

Sep 26, 2022, 08:00AM+7:00

VOT Research Desk

Analytical Viewpoint USD/JPY

Daily Pivots: (S1) 140.5; (R1) 144.99; 

Prior to official intervention, the USD/JPY reached a 24-year high last week. Afterward, the exchange rate crashed.

The price is still moving up in a trend channel and appears to be regaining bullish momentum.

The price must be above the short-term Simple Moving Average (SMA), the latter must be above the medium-term SMA, and the medium-term SMA must be above the long-term SMA in order for a bullish triple moving average (TMA) formation to occur. The gradient of every SMA must be positive.

A clear break above the 10-day SMA would indicate that the requirements for a TMA have been satisfied. The 10-day SMA is close by.

The recent peaks of 144.99 and 145.90 may act as resistance. Support on the downside might be found at the break points 139.39 and the prior lows of 141.50 and 140.35.

Sep 23, 2022, 8:00PM+7:00

VOT Research Desk

Analytical Viewpoint USD/JPY

Daily Pivots: (S1) 139.85; (P) 142.87; (R1) 145.40;

The intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as range trading continues. As long as the resistance turned support at 139.37 holds, a further rally will be possible.

Break of 145.89 will trigger a stronger surge toward long-term resistance at 147.68.

On the other hand, a decisive break below 139.37 will signal a short-term topping and create a bearish divergence in the 4 hour MACD. Back towards the 130.38 support, there would be a deeper drop.

The overall uptrend from 75.56, which includes the uptrend from 101.18, is continuing in process (2011 low).

Upward movement should continue to 147.68 (1998 high). For the time being, a break of support around 130.38 must occur before there is a medium-term topping signal.

Otherwise, even in the event of a severe pullback, the prognosis will remain favorable.

Sep 21, 2022, 10:40PM+7:00

VOT Research Desk

Analytical Viewpoint USD/JPY

Daily Pivots: (S1) 143.13; (P) 143.53; (R1) 144.11;

The USD/intraday JPY’s bias is still neutral as sideways consolidations persist. Although a further retreat cannot be ruled out, the 139.37 resistance turned support should limit the downside.

 A breach of 144.98 on the upside will restart a stronger uptrend toward long-term resistance at 147.68. Break there will aim for a 161.8% forecast from 130.38 at 151.44 to 126.35 at 139.37.

The overall uptrend from 75.56, which includes the uptrend from 101.18, is continuing in process (2011 low). Upward movement should continue to 147.68 (1998 high). For the time being, a break of support around 130.38 must occur before there is a medium-term topping signal.

Otherwise, even in the event of a severe pullback, the prognosis will remain favorable.

Sep 16 2022, 12:40Pm +7:00

VOT Research Desk

Analytical Viewpoint USD/JPY

Daily Pivots: (S1) 142.94; (P) 143.37; (R1) 143.94;

The USD/JPY intraday bias is still neutral, and the outlook is still positive. A breach of 144.98 on the upside will restart a stronger uptrend toward long-term resistance at 147.68. Break there will aim for a 161.8% forecast from 130.38 at 151.44 to 126.35 at 139.37. Although a deeper decline cannot be ruled out, the 139.37 resistance turned support should limit the downside.

A breach of 144.98 on the upside will restart a stronger uptrend toward long-term resistance at 147.68. Break there will aim for a 161.8% forecast from 130.38 at 151.44 to 126.35 at 139.37.

The overall uptrend from 75.56, which includes the uptrend from 101.18, is continuing in process (2011 low). Upward movement should continue to 147.68 (1998 high). For the time being, a break of support around 130.38 must occur before there is a medium-term topping signal.

Otherwise, even in the event of a severe pullback, the prognosis will remain favorable.

Sep 15 2022, 4:01 GMT

VOT Research Desk

Analytical Viewpoint USD/JPY

Daily Pivots: (S1) 142.17; (P) 143.56; (R1) 144.57;

The intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral first as range trading continues. Although a deeper decline cannot be ruled out, the 139.37 resistance turned support should limit the downside.

A breach of 144.98 on the upside will restart a stronger uptrend toward long-term resistance at 147.68. Break there will aim for a 161.8% forecast from 130.38 at 151.44 to 126.35 at 139.37.

The overall uptrend from 75.56, which includes the uptrend from 101.18, is continuing in process (2011 low). Upward movement should continue to 147.68 (1998 high). For the time being, a break of support around 130.38 must occur before there is a medium-term topping signal.

Otherwise, even in the event of a severe pullback, the prognosis will remain favorable.