Oct 2, 2022
VOT Research Desk
The Week Ahead
On Monday, the ISM manufacturing report kicks off the new quarter.
MON: Japanese Tankan Survey (Q3), Swiss CPI (Sept), EZ/UK/US Final Manufacturing PMI (Sept), US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Sept)
TUE:US Durable Goods RBA Announcement (August)
Wed: EZ/UK/US Final Services & Composite PMI (Sep), US ADP (Sep), Canadian Trade Balance (Aug), US ISM Services PMI (Sep), RBNZ Announcement, South Korean CPI (Sep), German Trade Balance (Aug), OPEC+ Meeting
THU: Australian Trade Balance (August), EZ Retail Sales (August), and ECB Minutes (September)SAT: German Industrial Production/Output in August, Norwegian GDP in August, US Jobs Report in September, and Canadian Jobs Report in September. Caixin Services PMI (September) Note:
The day-by-day listing of previews is as follows:
Analyst projections range from 51.0 to 53.7 for the manufacturing survey in September, with a predicted reading of 52.8.Prices paid are expected to decrease to 51.8 from 52.5, and the employment metric is expected to return to Contractionary territory at 49.0 from 54.2.
The regional surveys have been mixed, with the NY Fed manufacturing slowing significantly less than anticipated, with an increase in new orders, an optimistic outlook, an improvement in employment and shipments, and prices paid falling to their lowest level since December 2020.In the meantime, the Philly Fed survey did not meet expectations, but prices did slow down, which was good news.
Manufacturing shipments increased despite the fact that the Richmond Fed remained unchanged and manufacturing accelerated in the KC Fed. The headline index is expected to fall to 51.0, according to Credit Suisse, and the brokerage warns that the normalization of supplier delivery times will exert additional pressure on the print. The ISM stands out as a positive outlier because the desk also points out that the majority of regional surveys remain in negative territory or close to zero. CS anticipates that the ISM will move into contractionary territory later this year.
This is due to the fact that tighter conditions and negative sentiment will limit demand for consumer durable goods and business investment, while recessions in developed markets and a rise in the dollar will significantly hinder exports. According to the report, the Flash September S&P Global PMI “continued to signal a relatively subdued improvement in the health of the manufacturing sector.
