VOT Research Desk
There is unmistakably a shift in the US Dollar’s mood. According to history, the first stages of US recessions are often accompanied by a weaker US dollar, according to experts at Scotiabank.
The USD drops somewhat more than 2% in the first three months of US recessions on average (looking at the last five US recessions of 1981, 1990, 2001, 2007 and 2020), with losses kept to an average 0.5% over a six-month period.
This tells us to sell the USD when it slightly strengthens against the G3 in the coming months.
