Market Analytics and Technical Considerations
Key Points
Prediction for the Australian dollar: bearish
- The Australian Dollar is still subject to the whims of the US Dollar.
- The Fed is attempting to communicate with the markets, but it appears that the volume is too high.
- A strong economy this week raises the question of whether the RBA will raise interest rates.
In the wake of a turbulent week during which statistics and analysis clashed, the Australian Dollar is surging higher.
Domestically, retail sales for such month of October decreased by -0.2% month over month rather than increasing by the anticipated 0.5%.
As anticipated, private sector credit increased 0.6% from month to month in October. This resulted in an annual read of 9.5% year over year, which was also within expectations.
Building permits for October decreased by -6.0% month over month, far less than the expected increase of -2.0% and building on the prior reading of -5.8%.
All of these factors seemed insignificant in light of the market’s response to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s eagerly acclaimed talk on Wednesday.
A chorus line of Fed speakers informed the audience prior to his remarks that the bank would be raising interest rates by less than its past 4 increases of 75 basis points (bps). i.e., 50 bps at the meeting scheduled for December, which interest rate markets had already factored in months earlier.
Irrespective of what the bassist section was playing, the market continued to move to its own beat as Mr. Powell spoke from the same hymnal. Equities surged, Treasury yields plummeted, and the US dollar plunged.
Created on TradingView
The Australian Dollar reached a 13-week high above 68 cents as a result of the US Dollar’s weakness. As we approach the conclusion of the year, the road ahead is a little challenging.
On Wednesday, Australian GDP figures will be revealed, and analysts anticipate 6.1% yearly increase until the end of October. If it weren’t for the fact because inflation is up there with it, real growth would actually be minus.
However, relative to most other countries, the Australian economy is doing very well, and the longer it stays in the 60s, the more generous the locals are.
It would appear that short-term “big dollar” contortions are more likely to affect the AUD/USD exchange rate than local variables.
In the near future, a reevaluation of Fed forecasts may cause the US dollar to stabilize somewhat, providing Australian exporters additional chance to profit.
Weekly Exponential Moving Averages
|
Name |
MA5 |
MA10 |
MA20 |
MA50 |
MA100 |
MA200 |
|
AUD/USD |
0.6672 |
0.6648 |
0.6703 |
0.6918 |
0.7028 |
0.7143 |
Pivot Points
|
Name |
S3 |
S2 |
S1 |
Pivot Points |
R1 |
R2 |
R3 |
|
Classic |
0.6792 |
0.6798 |
0.6802 |
0.6808 |
0.6812 |
0.6818 |
0.6822 |
|
Fibonacci |
0.6798 |
0.6802 |
0.6804 |
0.6808 |
0.6812 |
0.6814 |
0.6818 |
|
Camarilla |
0.6802 |
0.6803 |
0.6804 |
0.6808 |
0.6805 |
0.6806 |
0.6807 |
|
Woodie’s |
0.6790 |
0.6797 |
0.6800 |
0.6807 |
0.6810 |
0.6817 |
0.6820 |
|
DeMark’s |
– |
– |
0.6799 |
0.6807 |
0.6809 |
– |
– |
Indicators
|
Name |
Value |
Action |
|
RSI(14) |
51.805 |
Neutral |
|
STOCH(9,6) |
65.830 |
Buy |
|
STOCHRSI(14) |
100.000 |
Overbought |
|
MACD(12,26) |
-0.010 |
Sell |
|
ADX(14) |
23.424 |
Neutral |
|
Williams %R |
-20.762 |
Buy |
|
Name |
Value |
Action |
|
CCI(14) |
68.6432 |
Buy |
|
ATR(14) |
0.0215 |
High Volatility |
|
Highs/Lows(14) |
0.0113 |
Buy |
|
Ultimate Oscillator |
64.725 |
Buy |
|
ROC |
-1.393 |
Sell |
|
Bull/Bear Power(13) |
0.0203 |
Buy |
|
Buy:6 |
Sell:2 |
Neutral:2 |
Indicators Summary: Buy |
Summary: BUY
Moving Averages: Buy (6)Sell (6)
Technical Indicators: Buy (6)Sell (2)
