US dollar falls below its first major support.
The US Dollar (USD) is speeding the reversal of its weekly gains, which were booked on Tuesday following the red-hot inflation news. Several analysts and economists dismissed the news as a one-off, with even US Federal Reserve member Austan Goolsbee stating that markets should not be based just on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) statistic. The disinflationary route to rate cuts remains intact, with a cut on the horizon.
Markets are selling the US dollar as retail sales fall.
On the economic front, retail sales is validating what US Fed member Austan Goolsbee said about the overall state of the US economy. The US inflation figure on Tuesday was a bit of an aberration, but the deflationary trend is still persisting. The drop in retail sales supports this theory.
Daily Market movers: Retail sales are down.
The first large batch for this Thursday has been released.
Retail Sales in January:
Monthly Retail Sales decreased from a revised 0.4% to -0.8%.
Monthly retail sales excluding autos fell from 0.4% to -0.6%.
The December figure was lowered from 0.6% to 0.4%.
The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index for February is recovering quickly, rising from -43.7 to -2.4.
The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey also leaps back into Growth figures range from -10.6 to 5.2.
Additionally, the Import/Export Price Index for January has been released:
The monthly import price index increased from -0.7% to 0.8%.
The Yearly Import Price Index fell 1.6% in December and is expected to fall another 1.3% in January.
The monthly export price index increased from -0.7% to 0.8%.
The Yearly Export Price Index fell by 3.2% the previous month and recovered slightly by -2.4%.
Weekly jobless claims have been published as well:
Initial Claims The previous figure was 218,000, but it was amended to 220,000, thus 212,000 is the new amount for this week.
Continuing jobless claims rose from 1.865 million to 1.895 million.
Industrial Production is predicted to gain 0.3% in January, following a 0.3% increase around 14:15 GMT.
A mixed bag of data will be issued at 15:00 GMT, with December Business Inventories expected to range from -0.1% to 0.4%.
Christopher Waller, a member of the US Federal Reserve Board, will make some comments about 18:15 GMT.
Christopher Waller, a member of the US Federal Reserve Board, will make some comments about 18:15 GMT.
The US Treasury Department will go to market at 16:30 GMT to allot a 4-week bill, followed by a 30-year TIPS auction around 18:00 GMT.
Equities are up after the backtracking on the forward drive of rate cuts. European shares are up more than 0.5%, while US equity futures are slightly higher.
The CME Group’s FedWatch Tool is now tracking the March 20th meeting. 89.5% expect a standstill, while 10.5% anticipate a rate cut.
The benchmark 10 year US Treasury The note trades at around 4.23%, which is roughly where it was before Tuesday’s inflation announcement.