Nov 7 – Analysis
VOT Research Report
Analytics and Considerations
On their monthly charts, all three of the major US stock indices have been in downswings for some time.
Although these patterns suggested a June 2023 turn date, all three posted some form of bullish technical reversing formation by the end of October.
Despite this, the Nasdaq continues to appear to be the most susceptible to the failure of its October bottom in November.
Despite all that has happened this week, the US nonfarm payrolls and unemployment levels for October were released on Friday. For the record, nonfarm payroll came in at 261,000 vs a reported 205,000 expectation and 315,000 last month. As opposed to an anticipated 3.5% and the previous month’s 3.5%, the unemployment rate at the end of last month was reportedly 3.7%. The labor participation rate was 82.5% compared to 82.7% at the end of September to round up the monthly data dump. The finest assessment seen was provided by Lisa Abramowicz of Bloomberg when she said, “There are murky jobs data… The job market is still heated, though, so that’s the main lesson. Soon later, all of this happened.
All of the three major US stock indices were in a position to generate bullish reversal formations on respective long-term monthly indicators for a significant portion of October, as we discussed. The S&P 500 ($INX), Nasdaq ($NASX), and Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) all finished bullish spike reversals by the time the closing bell rang on Halloween (October 31). Let’s quickly review the many reversals That search for:
or:
Indexes made fresh lows for the last significant downtrend before ending lower in a surge reversal. The least trustworthy reversal occurrence. frequently being immediately followed by a test of the low.
2-Month Turnaround: In this pattern, the close of the preceding period, which was close to the month’s low, is followed by a higher close of the subsequent month, which is close to the month’s high. Frequently followed by a brief retracement as well.
Key Revival: With the market finishing higher for the month, both the preceding month’s highs and lows are broken (others claim that a closure above the prior month’s high is required, but We disagree). a stable reversal trend in general.
When a market hits a new 4-month high, a reversal has been accomplished, as the name of the indicator implies. These take a bit to construct but are dependable.
It is not surprising that all three indexes have been under stress during the first days of November given what we seen at the end of October. The technical interpretation, however, indicates that each has entered slightly longer uptrends. But what about patterns that are more recent?
The S&P 500 intermediary pattern is in a 5-wave upswing as well, however it is transitioning into Wave 2 selloff. Near 3,576.00 is the goal on the decline. The S&P 500 is likewise experiencing a brief downturn, with a price target of about 3,576.00.
Nasdaq is on an intermediate-term uptrend, but at this point, there is concern that the index may surpass both its 10,316 goal and perhaps the October low of 10,092.94. The long-term monthly chart for that would become more fascinating as a result.
Similar patterns can be seen in the DJIA, and its intermediate-term trend appears to be in a Wave 2 selloff. The downward objective in this case is 29,543.
The main line is that, despite the fact that official statistics consistently contain a lot of contradictory information, trading algorithms nevertheless tend to adhere to certain technical patterns. How long this lasts will be seen.
