The Dollar Index bull run in place, but Structural as well as technical obstacles remain Loom. Major occasions in the United States the following week involve Retail Sales figures and the printing of the latest FOMC findings.

Dollar and DXY shows strength last week – What’s coming?

Major occasions in the United States within the next week feature Retail Sales figures and the unveiling of the FOMC findings. Investors are going to pay particular attention to Fed policymakers’ statements. While they plan for the upcoming Jackson Hole Symposium. In the United Kingdom, unemployment and inflation figures will be released. The RBNZ is going to discuss its fiscal policies. The RBA’s minutes from meetings will be released. While Australia will disclose job numbers. Inflation statistics for Canada are additionally likely to be issued.

The DXY rallied for the 4th week in consecutive weeks, gaining momentum. It finished the entire week at its strongest point before June, nearing 103.00. Financial markets saw minimal movement as investors remained cautious. The price of oil continued its 5-week uptrend, but it returned somewhat following hitting the highest mark before Nov. WTI crude oil closed at more over $82.00 per barrel.

US bond yields have risen, bringing the 10-year yield above 4.15 percent Gold fell $30 and finished at $1,910, whereas silver down 4.2 percent to roughly $22.60 / ounce.

Dollar Index Key Points

Aggressive Fed Language Overshadows US CPI Numbers.

The FOMC Minutes are doubtful to offer much more detail, given the hardline tone expected to persist. The markets still fluctuate as economic info becomes available.

DXY has to conquer a torrent of obstacles in order for the upward trend to keep up.

The US dollar further benefited on this week’s weak Chinese statistics, which fueled a cautious mood. Since traders remain worried about China’s patchy wellness. The dollar’s value has benefited from fresh safe-haven buying attraction.

Last week’s US inflation figures didn’t reveal a lot, with overall inflation rose marginally yet dropped short of expectations. Whereas core inflation declined marginally. It was mainly ignored by a slew of US Fed‘s officials, a lot of whom argued that the Fed needed to do more to combat inflation.  The PPI results for July came in at 0.3 percent, up from a prior corrected figure of zero percent on Friday.  Dollar maintained its lead at the conclusion of the year.

On Friday, there was also The UoM Consumer Sentiment Index fell in August. Although inflate – on was significantly higher than expected. The research demonstrated a slight rise in one-year inflation estimates, that fell to 3.3 percent from 3.4 percent before. Although the situation has got better the projections – dollar index fell to 67.3 versus 68.3 level.

Surprisingly, the CME FedWatch tool suggests a chance of just 26.2 percent for further raise in Nov. Which is lower from previous times. Perhaps Forex is the sole marketplace that notices it make sense. However, it is absurd, since we remain trading in ranges with the important currency, which is the euro. Which assumes a more in-depth examination of the facts. From first glance, it appears like the United States’ war over inflation stalled in July. Watch out for the retail data is a theme for investors, next week.

Next Interest Rate Hike Liklihood

Sep 20, 2023

Meeting Time: Sep 20, 2023 02:00PM ET

5.25 – 5.50

90.0%

5.50 – 5.75

10.0%

Refreshed: Aug 12, 2023 12:35AM EDT

The dollar and DXY technical Perspective

The Index has gained ground again last week, completing its fourth week in a row. The DXY is still within the declining pattern that started in early 2023. This is a critical resistance region looming within the 103.00-103.50 range. Featuring the 200-day MA at 103.34 along with the peak of the channel at the 103.50 hold. In our perspective, an opening of this path would necessitate a shift in the trend. Beyond having to anticipate the DXY continuing inside its falling range.