VOT Research Desk – Chain Analysis

Market Analytics and Technical Considerations

It is obvious that the market continues to be concerned about possible FTX fallout spreading. Market players are consequently unloading their holdings from exchanges, which could lead to the surrender of this negative cycle’s last stage.

This day’s graph

Given the price’s sharp decline, the market has probably entered a new era of short and medium to mid-term stabilization. However, the price may revisit the $18K–$19K range during the consolidation phase before continuing its downward trend until the $15K mark.

However, the $19K level of the 100-day moving average, which also coincides with the disrupted trendline, serves as a strong resistance. Therefore, the most probable situation for Bitcoin in the immediate term will be a regression toward the 100-day moving average and the ruptured trendline in the $18,000–$19,000.

Source: TradingView

Four-Hour Charting Factorial

After an expansion move, the market typically enters a gradual recovery and develops persistent corrective patterns. The price has established a triangular formation following the most recent reshuffle, as shown in the following graph, which is about to break this cycle to the top. In the event of a breach, the price will probably increase.

In addition, during the current decline, a discrepancy between the $18.7K and $19.2K areas has developed in the 4-hour timescale, which also coincides with the well-established 61.8 level of the Fibonacci retracement for the most recent bearish rally, making it a strong resistance. In light of this, it is likely that the price will cluster near the $18.5K–$19.2K range and use the current imbalances to extend the downtrend towards to the $15K support level.

Soure:TradingVIew

Through the Lens of Chain Evaluation

All market participants have been under a lot of strain as a result of Bitcoin’s sharp decline over the past few months. Fearing further decline, several investors sold their coins at steep losses and withdrew from the market.

Nonetheless, the market at the moment experienced a massive collapse as the Net Unrealized Profit/Losses gauge sharply declined. This metric, which calculates the ratio of unrealized losses versus gains, can be used to gauge market mood. The NUPL has plunged and made a new bottom during the recent cascade in price caused by the FTX’s collapse and liquidity crisis, a signal that has before denoted the termination of bear markets and the start of a new upswing.

The indicator, however, still has potential to fall, suggesting that the final bear market bottom may have not yet developed, going by previous negative market phases.