Australian dollar climbs despite a quiet US dollar ahead of US NFP.

On Friday, the Australian Dollar (AUD) extended its winning streak for the third straight session. Cting the prospect of the US Dollar (USD) falling further. In his second day of testimony before the US Congress, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell restated the central bank’s position. Powell signaled that borrowing costs could be decreased this year. However, he made it clear that such activities would The inflation trajectory must be consistent with the Fed’s 2% target.

The S&P/ASX 200 Index in Australia reached fresh highs after a tech-led rally on Wall Street overnight.

The Australian dollar extends its gains, boosted by stronger market optimism and a spike in equities markets. The S&P/ASX 200 Index has set fresh highs following a tech led rise on Wall Street overnight. This upward trend is reinforced by predictions. That major central banks would decrease interest rates this year. Which will increase market confidence even more.

Despite fears that the domestic economy grew slower than expected in the fourth quarter and the Trade Balance surplus fell short of projections. The Australian market remains resilient. These economic data support the notion that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) should contemplate rate decreases in the near future. Market conjecture is that the RBA may commence rates. cuts as early as August, with a total easing of 45 basis points expected by 2024.

Daily Market Movers: Australian Dollar Attempts to Maintain Gains on Positive Sentiment.

The Australian Trade Balance (MoM) reported a surplus of 11,027 million in February, up from 10,743 million the previous month. The market expected a gain of 11,500M.
In February, Australian imports (MoM) climbed by 1.3%, up from 4.8% the previous month. Monthly exports increased by 1.6%, beating the previous rise of 1.5%.
The Australian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased by 0.2% quarter on quarter in the fourth quarter of 2023, falling slightly short of market estimates of no change at 0.3%.
GDP (YoY) increased by 1.5%, above the predicted 1.4% but falling short of the prior growth rate of 2.1%.
The AiG Industry Index revealed a January’s print was -14.9, compared to the previous month’s -27.3.
Judo Bank Services The PMI rose to a ten-month high of 53.1 in February. This increase moved the index above the 50.0 mark, indicating expansion, and it outperformed the prior figure of 49.1.
The Australian Current Account Balance increased to 11.8 billion in the fourth quarter of 2023, compared to the previous estimates of 5.6 billion and 1.3 billion.
Commerzbank economists believe that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will postpone rate decreases, providing support for the Australian Dollar (AUD) in the meantime. They do not see an immediate slowdown in the Australian economy. However, if significant signs of a downturn materialize, potentially indicating a recession, the RBA may shift its monetary policy stance sooner.
China’s Trade Balance USD rose. to $125.16 billion, compared to a projected $103.7 billion in February and $75.34 billion the previous year. Imports and exports (YoY) increased by 3.5% and 7.1%, respectively.

Fed Chair Powell reiterated that the central bank may commence rate reduction this year.

Loretta Mester, President of the Cleveland Fed, addressed the Virtual European Economics and Financial Center, expressing concern about inflation’s possible persistence throughout the year. She suggested that if the economy performs as expected, rate decreases could be implemented later this year.
According to former New York Fed economist Steven Friedman. Federal Reserve policymakers are unlikely to decrease interest rates this year due to strong growth and volatile inflation. He projected fewer cuts than the three planned for 2024.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 5.0% chance of a 25 basis point Rates were cut in March. With the possibility of cuts in May and June standing at 25.5% and 56.7%, respectively.

US initial jobless claims remained constant at 217K for the week ending March 1, versus the predicted 215K.

US initial jobless claims remained constant at 217K for the week ending March 1, versus the predicted 215K.
US nonfarm productivity continued to expand at 3.2% in the fourth quarter of 2023, beating the market consensus of 3.1%.
The US ADP Employment Change in February was 140K. More than the projected 150K and up from 111K the previous month.
The number of US JOLTS job openings in January declined to 8.863 million from 9.026 million in December. Falling short of the market consensus of 8.900 million.
ISM Services PMI fell to 52.6 in February, versus an anticipated drop to 53.0 from 53.4.
In January, factory orders (MoM) declined by 3.6%. Which exceeded the projected The fall is 2.9%.
S&P Global Composite PMI (February) rose to 52.5 from 51.4.
The US ISM Manufacturing PMI (February) fell to 47.8 from 49.1, missing the market forecast of 49.5.