US dollar is struggling to find support as markets view Fed rate cuts as an inevitability.
The US dollar (USD) is trading largely flat following significant selling at the start of the US session on Wednesday, initiating another run lower towards a new 2024 low. The Nonfarm Payrolls revision revealed 818,000 fewer jobs than previously expected, the greatest downward revision in almost a decade, reinforcing market fears about the US labor market. Later, the release of the Federal Reserve Minutes for July The meeting revealed that some members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) had previously pledged to decrease interest rates, making this step almost inevitable in September.
Although it appears that nothing can go wrong, serious warning signs must be issued here.
US PMI data for August to provide some context.
The Federal Reserve, including Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, have already stated that one of their main concerns is the risk of cutting too early. With the preliminary August Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) results, any good figures could dampen hopes for a significant decrease in September or subsequent cuts down the road.
Daily market movers: Will PMI give a cold shower? US Dollar index is trading just around 101.00 and could fall to 100.00 if poor mood continues.
Markets are having difficulty reading Europe’s Purchasing Managers Index figures. France experienced an upswing. The Olympic Games boosted its Services PMIs, whilst Germany’s Services PMIs fell short of forecasts. The German Manufacturing component dropped even further into recession, which is poor news for Europe’s largest economy.
At 12:30 GMT, the weekly US unemployment claims are due:
Initial jobless claims are likely to increase to 230,000 from 227,000.
Last week, continuing claims totaled 1.864 million. There is no prediction available.
At 13:45 GMT, S&P Global will announce the preliminary US PMIs for August.
The Services index is predicted to stay relatively constant, dropping to 54 from 55 a month ago.
Manufacturing index is forecast to continue in contraction zone, at 49.6.
The Manufacturing index is forecast to continue in contraction zone, at 49.6.
The composite index is expected to fall to 53.5 from 54.3.
At The Existing Home Sales report is forthcoming at 14:00 GMT. Given the recent steep reduction in mortgage applications reported by the Mortgage Bankers Association on Wednesday, a drop in Existing Home Sales in July is also expected. Sales decreased by 5.4% the prior month.
Moreover The Kansas Fed Manufacturing Activity Tracker for August will be issued at 15:00 GMT. The previous printout was -12.
Asian share markets are up across the board as investors expect the Fed to decrease interest rates. However, US futures are trading relatively flat.
The CME Fedwatch Tool predicts a 67.5% chance of a 25 basis point (bps) interest rate drop by the Fed in September, against a 32.5% possibility of a 50 bps cut. Another 25 basis point drop (if September is a 25 basis point cut) is projected in November by 39.7%, with a 46.9% likelihood that rates would be 75 basis points lower than present levels and a 13.4% chance that rates will be 100 basis points lower.
Furthermore The 10-year benchmark interest rate in the United States is currently at 3.81%, a new weekly low.