EURUSD is Recovering from Intraday chart Oversold lows.

EURUSD is moving higher on Wednesday, returning to the 1.0770s and Continuing the previous day’s recovery from six week lows. It is still too early to judge if the move is a Correction or a Reversal of the Dominant short term Downtrend, but it is most likely the former.
The release of the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) and the Unemployment Rate on Wednesday had little influence on the pair, although reflecting a further easing of price pressures. Headline inflation in the Eurozone fell to According to Eurostat data, YoY growth was 2.4% in March, against expectations that it would remain at 2.6%. Core inflation fell to 2.9% from 3.1%, when no change had been expected.

Eurozone inflation statistics on Wednesday could have an impact on interest rate forecasts and the exchange rate.

Monthly inflation in the Eurozone increased by 0.8%, compared to 0.6% in February. The Eurozone unemployment rate rose to 6.5%, despite expectations that it would remain unchanged at 6.4% (revised up to 6.5%).
Although the data did not weaken the pair, it enhanced the likelihood of the ECB cutting interest rates even earlier, possibly in April.

EURUSD: It all depends on interest rate predictions.

EURUSD has been bearish since the second week of March, primarily due to shifting expectations Regarding the prospects for interest rates in Europe and America. Borrowing costs in the United States are projected to continue high for an extended period of time. Boosting the US Dollar (USD). As higher interest rates attract more international capital inflows. This view is unlikely to change significantly.
On both sides of the Atlantic, inflation has fallen, eliminating the need for high interest rates. However, in the United States, the process has been slower. And experts are less convinced that it will fall to the Fed’s 2.0% target in a sustained pace.
Most economists expected both the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve (Fed) to start decreasing interest rates around the same time, in June or so. However, most recently, the prognosis has begun to diverge. With the Fed regarded as perhaps delaying and the ECB as bringing up the timing.

EURUSD recovered from six-week lows in the 1.0720s on Tuesday.

EURUSD recovered from six-week lows in the 1.0720s on Tuesday. But it is unclear what drove the rise. It could have been mostly technical in origin, as indicators reached oversold levels on intraday charts.
It is also conceivable that comments by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly, who struck a dovish tone, contributed marginally to the rebound, citing “three rate cuts this year as a’reasonable’ baseline,” but she cautioned that three rate cuts were “not a promise.” However, when her words were reported, prices did not react immediately.
The HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI may also have provided a spark for the EURUSD recovery after being revised up to 46.1 in March from a flash estimate of 45.7. However, it stays below 50 and hence in contraction territory. Furthermore, the US ISM manufacturing PMI improved on Monday, rising above 50 to 50.3 in March, reaching growth territory for the first time since November 2022.