US Dollar whipsaws on NFP missing estimates, despite the report having many side notes.
The US Dollar (USD) is trading flat after returning to levels observed at the end of August in the US Dollar Index (DXY). The reason for the drop is that the Nonfarm Payrolls print fell short of expectations, coming in at 142,000 instead of 160,000, while July’s total revised down from 114,000 to 89,000. But, hold your horses, as a sidenote in the story indicated a lot more overtime reported, which could indicate a resurgence in demand and healthy robust activity, which clearly not the ideal atmosphere for the US Federal Reserve to reduce 50 basis points in September.
Traders continue to expect a 50 basis point rate drop in September.
All eyes on Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, which scheduled to speak. Fed Waller is notorious for making market-moving statements, and he could be the one to confirm whether the Fed will drop interest rates by 25 or 50 basis points in September.
Daily Market movers: There is an asterisk. US Dollar Index tested 100.62 to a tick before bouncing.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the US Jobs Report for August on Friday. Here are the major critical takeaways to watch:
Nonfarm payrolls came in at 142,000, lower than the 160,000 expectation. While July’s figure reduced from 114,000 to merely 89,000.
Monthly average hourly earnings increased from -0.1% to +0.4%.
The unemployment rate fell to 4.2% from 4.3%.
Following the release of the US Jobs Report, two Fed speakers are scheduled to speak:
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Around 12:45 GMT, President John Williams will deliver keynote comments and take part in a Q&A session at the C. Peter McColough Series on International Economics.
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller gives a speech on the US economic outlook.
Around 15:00 GMT, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller gives a speech on the US economic outlook and takes part in a Q&A session at the University of Notre Dame in Indiana.
Equities in Europe are trading flat ahead of the European closing bell, but US futures are flirting with positive territory.
The CME FedWatch The tool forecasts a 59.0% possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) in September, compared to a 41.0% chance of a 50-bps cut. Another 25 basis point drop (assuming September is a 25 basis point cut) is projected in November by 29.9%, with a 49.9% likelihood that rates will be 75 basis points (25 bps + 50 bps) lower than current levels and a 20.2% chance that rates will be 100 (25 bps + 75 bps) lower.
The 10-year benchmark rate in the United States is 3.73%, somewhat higher than the low set earlier this week.