US dollar is trading mixed on Friday ahead of major US economic data.
The US Dollar (USD) edged lower on Friday but held above the 104.00 mark ahead of May’s US Nonfarm Payrolls report.
Markets are still absorbing the ECB’s interest rate decrease ahead of the US employment report.
The US dollar is nearing weekly lows after the European Central Bank (ECB) slashed interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday. Lowering the ECB deposit facility rate to 3.75% from 4% before. The fact that ECB officials provided no future guidance on interest rates Rates leave markets with the impression. That it was a one-time event, dampening hopes for additional monetary easing.
Aside from the ECB revaluation, markets are looking forward to the May US Employment Report. Which will include the Nonfarm Payrolls data, monthly pay increase, and unemployment rate. The consensus for Nonfarm Payrolls is a rise of 185,000 from the 175,000 observed in April. The views range from 120,000 on the low end to 258,000 on the high. The most substantial market swings are expected if the number falls below or above the bottom and upper limits of the range.
Daily Market movers: Calm before the storm.The US Dollar Index has fallen below 104.00 in the early Asian session.
At 12:30 GMT, the US Employment Report for May will be issued.
Nonfarm Payrolls are likely to rise by 185,000, following the 175,000 additions in April.
Monthly average hourly earnings are predicted to rise to 0.3% in May from 2% the previous month.
Annual average hourly earnings should remain constant at 3.9%.
The unemployment rate should remain constant at 3.9%.
As typically, a report that meets expectations will have little impact on the market, however a print below 120,000 or above 258,000 for Nonfarm Payrolls would increase volatility.
Equities are trading with small losses in Asia and Europe, but US futures are gradually rising.
According to the CME Fedwatch Tool, 30-day Fed Fund futures pricing data shows a 31.8% possibility that rates will remain steady in September, against There is a 55.7% possibility of a 25 basis point (bps) rate cut and a 12.3% chance of a 50-bps rate cut. For the forthcoming meeting on June 12, markets are completely pricing in the continuation of existing rates.
The benchmark 10-year US Treasury Note trades at approximately 4.29%, close to a new monthly low of 4.27% set Wednesday.