Last week EURUSD Snapshot for the week Ended the 16th of February 2024.
During the week commencing the 16th of February the EURUSD decreased 0.08 percent to $1.07743 mark. The EURUSD peaked at $1.08055 on last Monday prior to dropping to $1.06949 on Wed.
The US Fed’s current adjustments of its policy stance has strengthened the US greenback throughout all markets. Sending the DXY up approximately 1.8 percent in the previous 3- weeks. Whilst increases might not develop sequentially in the future. Still looks like some space for more up and, especially if new information reveals that work on deflation is failing.
EURUSD Pair Estimation
Traders will likely be interested in Eurozone consumer trust statistics for Feb, released on Wed. A boost in customer trust may indicate a better picture for spending by consumers. Spending by consumers growth may boost driven by demand price increases and postpone the European Central Bank’s rate cuts.
Analysts expect the index of consumer confidence to rise from -16.1 towards -15.6.
Initial business sector PMIs for Germany, France, plus the rest of the euro area will pique market attention on Thur.
The service sector PMIs are anticipated to possess a greater influence. As they make up over 60 percent of the European GDP. Additionally, the service area continues the primary driver of price increases. Aside from the overall data, the pricing with other variables will be an essential aspect. A rise in inflationary pressures could confirm the central bank’s views on reducing rates of interest.
Nevertheless, official Europe inflation figures for Jan may have an impact upon the ECB’s policy course. Higher adjustments to preliminary numbers could increase interest from buyers for the EURUSD. Based on initial statistics, the annual rate of inflation has decreased from 2.9 percent to 2.8 percent.
On last Friday, the Germany’s economy would yet again be pursuant to the limelight. Completed GDP for the fourth quarter and business confidence figures will remain center stage. A lower change to GDP data may obscure an improvement in corporate confidence. Based on initial statistics, the Germany’s economy declined by 0.3 percent quarter over quarter in quarter 4.
Near-term exposure EURUSD Pair
The projection is based on Service PMIs, European price rises, the European Central Bank and US Fed remarks. Aggressive US Fed comments with an unanticipated increase in service-related activities may shift the Fed’s monetary policy dispersion towards the USD.
Technical Analysis and Outlook
The euro/dollar pair remained beneath the 50 & 200 D- EMAs, indicating negative pricing signs. The euro vs USD breach over the $1.07838 hurdle & the 200 D- EMA would put the 50 D-moving average (EMA) into account. A breach over the 50 D-EMA suggests an advance to the $1.09294 barrier area.
PMIs for services, Continental price increases, ECB talk, and minutes from the central bank’s meetings must all be considered.
Nevertheless, a drop under the $1.07000 mark would put the $1.06342 supporting area into focus. The 14-time frame day- RSI of 43.81 points to a EURUSD decline towards the $1.06342 supporting mark prior to reaching exhausted zone.
On the contrary, should traders make a recovery and cause a negative turnaround. The Supports will develop at 1.0700 mark, as earlier said. Bullish traders must vigorously protect this territory; inability in doing so may result in a negative push below 1.0650. Rates are expected to settle in this band amid a retreat, although a significant collapse might result in a decline below 1.0520 area.
