The EURO vs USD exchange rate fell somewhat last week, remaining under the negative pattern which we were constantly following.

THE BACKGROUND EUROPEAN ESSENTIAL

Last week’s monetary authority presenters had a significant influence on the euro. Especially the US Fed topping the bullish debate. Fed Chairman Powell rebuffed softer chatter and kept the option open for more interest rate rises if required. Resulting in an overall increase for the United States currency this week.

Disappointing Chinese economic information has had no effect on the euro’s value. Due to a continuous slump harming the region’s currently shrinking industrial sector. As a result, capital markets have factored in around 85bps of aggregate rate reduction by the end of 2024. Compared with the US Fed’s 75basis points, feeding towards the grasp of the US dollar through the carried trading.

Next week is seen as data important

The coming week coming is comparatively busier over the previous one. Due to both Eurozone and American reports slated throughout the course of the week. The primary attention will be on the U.S. CPI and the European Union’s CPI. Eurozone overall inflation is likely to fall substantially to 2.9 percent from 4.3 percent, weighing upon the euro if this happens.

Weekly (Nov 13) – Technical Evaluation of the Euro vs. the USD

Throughout the course of the trading week, the euro’s value fell slightly when the 50-Week EMA entered the frame to provide barrier. It is also noteworthy how the 200-day exponential moving average on a daily basis has provided substantial obstacles. As a result, Monday’s candlestick became the shape of a shooting star. Which we subsequently dropped. In addition, bear in consideration that we’re currently in a decline.  Thus it is possible that markets could fall to the 1.06 mark at the trough of this wave. Should we breach beneath this point, investors will possibly look towards the 1.05 zone.

Source: radingView

On the contrary side, should we succeed in breaking over the high point that was set last week. Perhaps might see an advance towards the 1.09 area. Nonetheless, there is a market with plenty of swings and loud conduct.  Therefore, it is possible that it might be greater disturbances in the future.

At the moment, the debate is on if the US central bank will ease its monetary stance or keep it rigid. Other things being comparable, it’s a marketplace which remains to fluctuate on the newest account or rumor. Resulting in erratic activity. Should the price fall under 1.05, the “hold gate” opens, driving the market drastically down.  Maybe all the way to 1.0250 level. In any case, we believe you’re on the verge of a shift upward or down.  Which means we ought to witness major movement entering the marketplace at some point.

Key Resistance levels:

• 1.0800/200-day MA
• Flag resistance
• 1.0700

Key Support levels:

• 1.0635
• 50-day MA
• 1.0600
• Flag support
• 1.0500

Indicators (Weekly)