GBPUSD Breaking News: Despite rising jobless, UK job data is inconsistent. The most recent job market data from the UK varied, showing both early symptoms of collapse and evidence of resilience.
GBPUSD Impact by the UK job fata – Notable Points
Actual UK Employment Change (FEB): 182k vs. forecasted 160k.
The actual UK jobless rate (MAR) is 3.9% vs. the expected 3.8 percent.
Average Wage with Bonus (3 Months/Year) (MAR) Real 5.8% vs. Expected 5.8 percent.
Actual (inflation-adjusted) salaries decreased by 2.0% for regular pay and by 3.0% for total pay.
The most recent labor market data from the UK showed mixed results. Showing both evidence of the strength and early symptoms of collapsing. Because the total amount of persons employed in the country increased by 182k over the course of three months. Exceeding expectations by 160k. The rise was mostly caused by temporary employees and independent contractors.
The JOB Data Table
The rise in the rate of joblessness from the previous quarter of 0.1% to 3.9%. This was mostly due to those who had been jobless for more than a year. Since the months of Nov 2021 through Jan 2022, this level is the most elevated. The expected number of openings declined by 55,000 throughout the quarter to 1,083,000 from Feb to April 2023. For the tenth straight quarter, there were fewer openings, reflecting concern across industries. Poll respondents keep pointing to economic concerns as a reason for delaying hiring. The ONS study goes on to say that protests cost the UK 556,000 working days in March.
In keeping with expectations, the UK’s median salary, including bonuses, came in at 5.8 percent. The last time the public sector had such a rise was from Aug to October 2003 (5.7%). When it averaged 5.6% from Jan to March 2023.
Source: Office for National Statistics
UK OUTLOOK IS PROGRESSING
During the past two weeks, a number of high-impact UK data releases have offered a very ambiguous image of the state of the economy. Although the newly adjusted development prediction provided by the BoE has seen some higher adjustments. Inflation remains painfully elevated. The GDP growth numbers for this week, nevertheless, revealed an unusual slowing. And decrease for the months of February and March
The possibility of more interest rate increases was acknowledged by the (BoE). The possibility of another increase exists but given the banks’ own projections for inflation. It would be best to take a waiting attitude. The BoE is not atypical. As the repercussions of the most recent raising cycle become more noticeable. The central banks will want to make sure that tightening too much does not spread around the world.
There is no doubt that, for the most part, the UK economy has remained strong. Although new GDP numbers may raise some questions. Recently, retail sales have decreased as well, an indication that consumers are continuing to tighten their budgets as the cost of living remains a concern.
Market Response and Technical Perspective
Given the rebound, we witnessed the previous day. The early market response to the news resulted in the GBPUSD dip by about 50 pip. A somewhat higher USD this morning additionally added to the intensity of the decline following the release of the data.
GBPUSD is attempting to break under the upward channel on a daily time frame. This might lead to an additional pullback into the support areas. Offered by the 50 and 100-day moving averages around 1.2380 and 1.2260, accordingly. Keeping a watch on events surrounding the US debt ceiling as they may have a big impact on the USD and therefore the GBPUSD.
