Forex insights – US DOLLAR, JAPANESE YEN, AND EURO VS. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR – VALUE SETUPS and Price setups for Aussie Pairs
Forex Price Setup for AUD Key Points
In the meanwhile, AUD looks to be establishing a base.
AUDUSD has risen from a firm support level, while EURAUD has fallen from a strong resistance level.
The AUDJPY rate is still within the standard band.
The Aussie seems to find a base temporarily
Technical indicators are beginning to provide hints that the Australian dollar may have discovered a temporary floor. To be safe, AUD would need to put in a little more effort.
After the RBA suddenly increased the benchmark rate by 25 basis points at its policy meeting this past week. And left the door open for additional tightening, the Australian dollar recovered on speculation short AUD posture and oversold situations.
Later today (7.30 pm AEST), Australia’s Treasurer Jim Chalmers will present the federal budget for FY23–24. Which is anticipated to produce an initial surplus in fifteen years. Given that the US has a deficit, an overall surplus is beneficial for the Australian dollar. The excess must turn into a trend. Instead of a single event in order for it to have a lasting effect on the Australian dollar (AUD).
It’s true that the odds are improving for a significant AUDUSD comeback. But it may still be too early to declare an end to the worldwide drop of the Australian dollar, particularly when compared to the EUR & GBP.
Testing important resistance: AUDUSD
The setback since the beginning of the year is consolidation inside the upward trend since October, not the beginning of a decline. The horizontal trendline from Nov gave significant support for the AUDUSD duo at about 0.6585.
The pair appears to be preparing for an excursion over the present barrier. The mid-April top of 0.6805 is based on the following “V”-shaped bounce. A break like that may pave the way to the 0.7025 high from mid-Feb.
Cracks in the surge for the EURAUD Pair
The latest strong decline in EURAUD may be an indication that the multi-week surge is coming to an end. However, the course of least resistance could lead the upwards or neutral path. Until the cross breaches through immediate support at a low of 1.6360 from late April. The EURAUD would need to drop under 1.5950-1.6000 (including the Dec peak and the 89-day MA) for the multi-week upward trend to ease. After reaching a 2.5-year peak in April, EURAUD fell victim to a strong resistance zone near the Oct. 2020 top of 1.6825 mark.
Testing the upper limit of the price range in AUDJPY
The fact that AUDJPY was unable to breach key support at the Dec bottom of 87.10 in March. Implies that the decrease from Sept 2022 to March 2023 is curative. AUDJPY also maintained a rather good buffer on the 89-week MA. Which coincided with the Oct 2021 peak.
However, for the negative strain to ease, the cross must overcome its present resistance at the 200-day moving average. Which coincides with the top of 93.35 reached in mid-December. The wider band of 86.00-93.00 may remain unchanged in the lack of an opening through the barrier.
