GBP price prediction: As UK labor data surprises. Things Get Rough for the BoE – The UK jobs report confirms the challenging labor market settings.
GBP FUNDAMENTAL REVIEW
This morning, the British pound managed to edge up as the employment report outperformed forecasts across the board. Though job change received most of the attention. Wages on average, regardless of bonuses, may increase inflationary pressures and lead the (BoE) to extend its rate rise cycle. These are some significant points from the job market outline: The Office for National Statistics is the source.
The rate of economic inactivity dropped by 0.4.
The anticipated decrease in open positions from January to March 2023 was 47K
Despite better-than-expected earnings growth, overall and regular pay decreased from Dec 2022 to Feb 2023 by 3.0%. For overall pay and 2.3% for regular pay, respectively.
In other words, the increase in salary growth is less significant than it was just a few weeks back. This is encouraging for the BOE yet may not be sufficient to cause stop their tightening of monetary policy.
Economic Activity Schedule
The market is expecting another rate hike by BOE next month
There is currently an 82.67% likelihood of a 25 bps interest rate increase from the BoE. According to money price projections for the May meeting. That so, the BoE is probably going to stick to its plan for another rate rise. Unless tomorrow’s UK inflation statistics drastically undershoot expectations.
The US construction permits data for March is coming later today, following February’s good surprise. Another upbeat reading might help the USD. The Fed’s Bowman is slated to talk on the most recent statistics and perspectives on monetary affairs to end today’s trading session.
Technical Perspective
Following yesterday’s channel breach, the daily GBPUSD market action is vying with the psychological level of 1.2400. Due to tomorrow’s UK inflation data, the market has responded to the labor data thus far with more skepticism. Tomorrow after the inflation, this will be a more specific quick directional skew.
Major resistance levels:
- 1.2667
- 1.2500
Major support levels:
- 1.2400
- 1.2345