The dollar is gaining some impetus as risk-off impulses somewhat offset the effect of bad US data. According to BBH economists’ most recent report.
“After two consecutive down days, US Dollar is up today and is trading close to 102. A test of the low from February, around 100.82, is opened up by a clean break below 102.
“ADP released its estimate of private sector employment. It was 145k as opposed to 210k anticipated and 242k in February. Although ADP has consistently overstated NFP over the previous year. Market expectations for the March employment report on Friday have weakened.
NFP consensus now stands at 235k, down from 311k in February, while the unemployment rate is predicted to remain unchanged at 3.6%. It is anticipated that hourly wages would decline to 4.3% y/y from 4.6%. Notably, the information will be released on Good Friday.
We could see some disproportionate moves in the statistics, whether positive or negative, as markets are likely to be relatively thin.
