Euro currently holds above important support. The EURUSD has made a comeback after falling under the 1.0800 zone.
Euro rises against the US dollar
USD After being under bearish pressure throughout Monday’s Asian session, the EURUSD has renewed momentum and moved back above 1.0800. Although the technical picture for the duo does not yet suggest a development of bearish traction.
Buyers might continue to be wary in case safe haven movements control the price action later in the day. During the weekend, producers from OPEC+, headed by Saudi Arabia, declared that they would willingly cut their daily production of crude oil. As a result of this event, the price of crude oil skyrocketed, raising fears that rising energy costs would lead to inflation.
Euro views interest rate probability of more than 60%
The US Federal Reserve (Fed) is presently pricing in a probability of more than 60%, up from 48% on Friday. It will raise its policy rate by 25 basis points at the coming policy meeting – according to the CME Group FedWatch Tool.
With US stock benchmark futures trading in the negative zone in the initial European period. The markets also appear to have become more cautious. Furthermore, after a strong opening, the Euro Stoxx 50 has already reached a flat point.
The PMI data is crucial
The factory PMI for March will be made public by ISM in the afternoon. It is anticipated that the final PMI will decrease to 47.5 from 47.7. The survey’s measure of inflation. The Price Paid Index is predicted to increase from 51.3 to 53.8.
| Calendar | GMT | Reference | Actual | Previous | Consensus | TEForecast | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-02-01 | 03:00 PM | Jan | 47.4 | 48.4 | 48 | 48 | |
| 2023-03-01 | 03:00 PM | Feb | 47.7 | 47.4 | 48 | 48 | |
| 2023-04-03 | 02:00 PM | Mar | 47.7 | 47.5 | 49 | ||
The US Dollar might rise and force EURUSD to lose momentum if the headline stays under 50. Also, the inflation estimate increases more than expected. On the other side, if the Price Paid Index surprisingly falls below 50, the USD may struggle to find demand.
Technical Perspective
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) gauge on the four-hour graph increased with the most recent rebound to 50. Indicating that sellers are finding it difficult to maintain control. The Fibonacci 23.6% retracement of the most recent uptrend, or 1.0820, lines up as an important support mark on the decline.
The duo is likely to find temporary support at 1.0790 (static handle). If it breaches it and begins to act as resistance, before attempting to test 1.0760 (the 100-period (SMA). which serves as the Fibonacci 38.2% retracement.
