Crude oil surges up on Monday above $70 a barrel. For the fourth session in a row, speculators raised their open interest positions. According to CME Group’s flash report on crude oil futures markets.

Crude oil (WTI) started the week with gains

WTI oil has risen more than 2% since the day’s beginning and is back above $70 on Monday. A suspension of exports from Iraqi Kurdistan via Turkey is the current short-term impetus. The latter move, which was significantly oversold, may be a component of a larger recovery of crude oil 

The concluding drop in oil prices last week brought it to its lowest level since November 2021, below $65. At precisely crucial levels. Where buyers’ interest in oil has since got back the sell-off in oil came to an end. This attitude creates the conditions to stay at least a medium-term recovery. More likely is a following multi-month rally in estimates, according to the more upbeat scenario.

Crude oil (WTI)l next target mark is $71.60

Rising open interest and volume, along with Friday’s recovery from the sub-$67.00 level. Favor an extension of the WTI price rebound in the very near future. A potential move to the most recent weekly peaks around $71.60. That should be made clear by the convincing surpassing of the crucial $70.00 zone a barrel of the March 23 mark.

A short-term bounce is supported by the Relative Strength Index’s return from oversold territory. When we zoom in on the daily timeframes. Also notable is the fact that oil managed to increase last week despite the US news. Production increased to 12.3M BPD on Wednesday, according to the EIA. Which was in the range of February’s highs.

EIA Crude oil Inventory Chart

Crude stocks increased for a second week, rising 16.4% from levels from the exact same week last year. While that were more active platforms on Friday night, oil continued to close strongly despite this.

The Technical Perspective of oil

A bullish turnaround in oil is supported by the rally that began this week. At the same time. The highly strained macroeconomic environment (risks of a recession, and elevated interest rates) is causing an upside break.

The $73 area represents a significant measure of the longevity of the bullish trend in oil. This is where the market retraced during the March sell-off from the local lows of the trading range. which is between Dec and Feb A rebound above 73 would indicate the start of a new multi-month upward trend rather than a short-term rebound.

Technical Summary of Crude oil